CRISIL Research has come out with its monetary policy review. The central bank now expects WPI inflation to remain above the current levels (6.5 per cent in September) in the coming months, raising its inflation forecast for the entire fiscal above the earlier projection of 5.5 per cent.
Fed's dovish stand, which points to a more benign liquidity environment, is pushing Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) towards India. At home, country-specific factors such as the Reserve Bank governor Raghuram Rajan's move towards easing liquidity is boosting confidence.
KR Bharat of Advent Advisors believes the focus in the upcoming RBI policy will be on inflation. If there is repo-rate hike, the markets could be disappointed and sell off for 2-3 days, but the power of liquidity is so strong that the market will overcome the disappointment quickly, and the push towards making new highs.
The crucial thing to watch is whether the operational overnight rate shifts to repo rate from the curent MSF rate, says Sandeep Bagla, ICICI Securities.
Money has got cheaper in terms of incremental deposits though the market is still adjusting to the new rates that Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has set. Rajat Monga, CFO, Yes Bank, expects money to get cheaper by up to 75 bps.
Lower long-term rates are a key to growth, but the RBI can't cut long-term rates by tinkering with short-term rates, says Montek Singh Ahluwalia, deputy chairman of the Planning Commission.
The mention of a stable nominal anchor both in the policy statement and in the terms of reference of the Urjit Patel committee on monetary policy framework attests to that. Having a stable nominal anchor i.e. a price stability objective would help RBI avoid the classic time inconsistency problem.
While welcoming RBI governor Raghuram Rajan‘s move to cut MSF rate, C Rangarajan, Chairman, Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council, cautions against letting the guard on rupee and inflation slip. Inflation continues to remain high even if core inflation maybe down but overall inflation, both wholesale and retail are still high.
State Bank of India chairman Pratip Chaudhuri, expects SBI‘s net interest margins to be in the range of 3.55-3.60 percent. He said he has recommended to the RBI that it reduce Cash Reserve Ratio by 1 percentage point.