What emerged from the monetary policy commentary is that the policy makers remained more uncertain about the inflation trajectory than the growth trajectory.
Soumya Kanti Ghosh Chief Economic Advisor of SBI said that their projections were a clear 20 basis points down the September inflation rate.
Indranil Pan, Chief Economist at IDFC Bank told CNBC-TV18 the current rate cut was largely data dependent and it is likely future rate actions will also remain so.
IDFC Bank Chief Economist Indranil Pan believes a single rate cut of 25 basis points is coming on April 5 but he is quick to pour cold water on those hoping for more.
Indranil Pan estimates GDP growth for this fiscal at close to 7.3-7.4 percent and says the growth momentum for FY17 could face challenges unless corporate balance sheets imporve and global growth picks up
Indranil Pan, Chief Economist, IDFC expects an uptick in October IIP, which could be led by the capital goods sector that saw an upward trend on back of government spending.
The difference in economic recovery compared with 2003-08, a period which also saw high growth, will be that it will be government investment-led rather than fuelled by private investment and consumption as happened earlier, In dranil Pan said.
In an interview with CNBC-TV18, Indranil Pan, chief economist, Kotak Mahindra Bank, outlined his view on the index of industrial production (to be released today) and consumer price index (to come out on April 13) data.
With the February CPI and January IIP data due to be released in the evening today, CNBC-TV18‘s Latha Venkatesh and Sonia Shenoy spoke to Indranil Pan, chief economist, Kotak Mahindra Bank to discuss his outlook on the trajectory.
India‘s current account deficit (CAD) narrowed to USD 8.2 billion or 1.6 percent of GDP in Q3 of 2014-15 from USD 10.1 billion or 2 percent of GDP in Q2.
In an interview to CNBC-TV18, MS Unnikrishnan, MD of Thermax, Indranil Pan, Chief Economist at Kotak Mahindra Bank and Pranav Sayta, Tax Partner at EY, discuss on the Economic Survey and their expectations from the Budget.
The Wholesale Price Index (WPI) for January came in at negative 0.39 percent versus CNBC poll of 0.15 percent. The data shows a decline in core inflation but food prices have inched up. Experts discuss the possibilities of another round of rate cut.
Now, with consumer inflation dipping below RBI's forecast in December, will Rajan deliver that promised out-of-policy rate cut some time in January itself?
industrial output front with the index reading for November coming in at a five-month high of 3.8 percent, compared to a contraction of 4.2 percent in October. Even the consumer inflation for December stood at was 5 percent
Inflation based on consumer price index (CPI) for November is expected to soften further led by favorable base. A CNBC-TV18 poll of analysts estimates the inflation to come in at 4.4 percent as against 5.5 percent on a month-on-month basis.
Pan believes the gross domestic product growth for Q2 FY15 is unlikely to come below 5 percent as the first quarter GDP was also way above that number at 5.7 percent.
Both macro-economic data points will be released post market hours today
RBI has made it clear that not only is it looking at headline inflation in the core but also on how the inflation expectations pan out says Indranil Pan Chief Economist, Kotak Mahindra Bank
In an interview to CNBC-TV18‘s Ekta Batra, Indranil Pan, Chief Economist, Kotak Mahindra Bank and Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Chief Economic Advisor, SBI gave their reading of CSO‘s GDP estimate and their outlook for the economy.
In an interview with CNBC-TV18‘s Sonia Shenoy, Kotak Mahindra Bank‘s Chief Economist Indranil Pan spoke about his expectations from the Reserve Bank of India‘s monetary policy stance ahead and his view on inflation.
It is imperative that the finance ministry atleast stick with the 4.8 percent fiscal deficit target because anything higher than that has the potential to trigger a ratings downgrade, which in turn can impact inflows, says Indranil Pan of Kotak Securities.
Sajjid Z Chinoy, Asia Economics, JPMorgan says the main disinflationary force has been the cooling of vegetable prices. Retail vegetable prices have corrected by more than 30 percent and the first 10 days of January has already seen another 20 percent cooling.
According to Indranil Pan, the fall in trade deficit will pull down the current account deficit eventually, leading rupee to its fair value at around 61-62/USD against 63-64/USD projected earlier.
Indranil Pan is still looking at around 4.6 percent in terms of overall GDP outlook. He says if export numbers remain consistent then the drag on overall GDP from net trade could be coming down.
Export competitiveness may not get impacted, as bulk of the inflation is coming from items that India does not export, like food. But food inflation may continue to stay on the higher side on a relative basis if the Food Security Bill actually plays out.