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What will happen today is that you will see a correction of the magnitude that in some stocks will correct gains of two years in two days – that’s market for you.
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Midcaps in focus
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There was zero foreign institutional investor (FII) volume yesterday, near zero FII volume yesterday and in that this sensed only Rs 800-900 crore of selling led the market down about 100 points.
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My sense is for today with expiry also being there it may not hurt you to just for the day- just for the day maybe try a short trade on the Bank Nifty may be via the options route.
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There is a bit of an issue with crude oil surging to wherever it is but look at the context. The foreign institutional investors (FIIs) are not there.
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The retail investors have made a lot of money by the mutual funds route, so that gives me a lot of satisfaction about this week.
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Today, good thing is that today global cues are supportive. So there is a good chance that there may not be too much of sell on news today.
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As expected, the exit polls are favouring the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). What should go in market favour is that it is predicting a landslide not just a normal win and which is something which is the best case scenario for the market.
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The markets were very volatile yesterday and the sense I am getting is that today could be another volatile session.
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The crude oil is back to 65 that changes sudden things for India. There is also bond yields which have gone up and the market is very close to important resistance mark.
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I think the ingredients are in place for the market to have a big rally.
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It is an interesting day coming up for the market today because yesterday we had a significant bounce from the low point.
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This morning the SGX Nifty is indicating that the market will start lower.
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If you take a look at the way we saw corrections on the front line indices, 1.3 percent cuts on the both the Nifty and the Sensex, one would say the bears really were on top.
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There is a good chance for gap down today as well because of global cues and this is a market which is in a range.
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As of now the chances of a breakout are higher than chances of a breakdown.
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The Chinese markets they are under some pressure. The bond yields in the Chinese markets are moving higher.
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We are in a range 10,320 to 10,370 thereabouts, so maybe what you could do is still try to trade these boundaries or try to trade the breakout or breakdown. My sense is I would want to bet on a breakout than breakdown.
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The point I made yesterday was that yesterday was the best chance that the bulls had to really seize control of this market and take the Nifty significantly pass the supposed halt of 20-day moving average.
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The market was closed to support mark, the India VIX was at highest level and I think this market has given you tradable correction and is now ready to take the shorts just out of the system.
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If you have been short may be you would just want to take your stop loss now to around 10,200 and see if this market still has legs to go as far as the short side is concern.
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This has been a tradable correction because the markets were making lower high and lower low.
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I think this is a correction which was tradable because yesterday the first indication came when the markets made a new lower high in the first hour and after that started drifting lower.
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Goods and services tax (GST) will have its impact but the overall market mood is changing a bit.
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Overnight as US market has a fall because of what has been happening politically and Trump’s Tax reforms getting a bit of a jolt and I think when the mother market sneezes others catch cold and that is what has happened with other markets as well.
