Demanding allies and an existential crisis — it’s a tough road ahead for Congress

Knives are out in the Congress after its poor show in recently-concluded assembly elections. The Congress was voted out of power in Punjab, recorded its lowest ever tally in Uttar Pradesh, couldn’t win Uttarakhand and Goa where conditions were ripe for regime change, and it did not put up a fight in Manipur.

The G-23, the rebel faction within the grand old party, has put up its hand for the umpteenth time and asked the Gandhi leadership uncomfortable questions. The Gandhis — acting President Sonia Gandhi, her son Rahul Gandhi and her daughter Priyanka Gandhi Vadra — and the Congress Working Committee (CWC) members in a quid pro quo have ensured both retain power in the organisation. The Congress has lost 39 of the last 49 state elections. Its existential crisis has further deepened.

There are serious doubts about the party’s ability to take on the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) at the national level. It is getting increasingly difficult for the party to hold on to its status of being the primary challenger to the BJP.

Many regional parties now do not wish to rally behind the Congress in a bid to oppose the BJP in the 2024 general elections. The supremacy the Congress once enjoyed in the opposition space has now been ceded to smaller parties, like the Trinamool Congress (TMC) in West Bengal, and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in Delhi, and now Punjab.

The Congress’ alliance partners in the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) will be considering other options such as the non-BJP, non-Congress federal front now, especially after the assembly election fiasco. The allies who remain within the UPA will likely demand more seats during the upcoming elections. The Congress, in short, has lost its right to sit at the head of the UPA table.

This also re-ignites the debate over the utility of the Congress for its regional allies. In Bihar, the Congress has been the weak link pulling the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), same is the case in Tamil Nadu with the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK).

This reality has dawned upon the Congress as well. In a recent interview senior leader and former Union minister P Chidambaram admitted that to beat the BJP the Congress could work under the leadership of the TMC in West Bengal, and in Punjab with “AAP as leader”.

There are 200-odd seats in the Lok Sabha where the Congress is in direct contest with the BJP. Of these seats, in the 2019 general elections, the Congress won just 10 percent. These seats are in: Gujarat (26-0), Madhya Pradesh (28-1), Chhattisgarh (11-0), Himachal Pradesh (4-0), Uttarakhand (5-0), Rajasthan (25-0), Karnataka (25-1), Delhi (7-0), to name a few.

Factional Feuds

The fact is that the Congress lacks the muscle, leadership, and social coalition to challenge BJP in these states. It is plagued by factionalism, in all states. Punjab is a classic case. The Sachin Pilot-Ashok Gehlot saga in Rajasthan is another example. In Chhattisgarh, for the time being Bhupesh Baghel has thwarted the challenge from TS Singh Deo.

In Madhya Pradesh, Kamal Nath, Digvijaya Singh, and Ajai Singh are vying the Chief Minister’s post in the 2023 elections. In Gujarat, the Congress has appointed a new OBC chief, Jagdish Thakore, who is not getting the backing of the Madhav Singh Solanki group.

In Karnataka, the cold war between DK Shivkumar and Siddaramiah is an open secret. In the northeastern states, most of its top leaders have left the party.

There is a dearth of tall leaders in the party across social groups. In addition to this the party does not have a fresh vision for India which it can present to the electorate; and its cadre/leadership do not have the fire in their belly to fight it out.

Filling The Vacuum

AAP could replace the grand old party in states where the BJP is in a direct contest with the Congress. AAP could become a good choice for the electorate who have been longing for change, but were not convinced by the Congress. AAP recently been appointed leaders in nine states including Gujarat, Himachal Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Assam, and Haryana.

The Congress cannot afford to relax in past glory, especially in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh which go to the polls later this year.

The Congress needs foot soldiers on the ground, but without a core ideology, it will be difficult, nah impossible to hold on to them or voters.