RBI signals end of rate cut cycle; MPC flags growth risks from tariffs
RBI also alludes to core inflation having remained somewhat elevated – probably another reason why the RBI would not have wanted to further ease monetary policy.
RBI MPC’s unanimous pause on rates reflects caution amid softening inflation and geopolitical uncertainty
With the central bank projecting inflation for Q4FY26 and Q1FY27 above 4 percent, and maintaining the growth forecast compared to the last policy, it seems that the bar for a future rate cut is high unless growth weakens.
Mint Road signals watchful pause
In a world marked by uncertainty, anchoring expectations and a data-driven policy approach remain key to preserving macroeconomic stability
Keep calm and carry on is RBI’s message
A calibrated approach while steering policies to bolster domestic growth and preparing to act if external shocks, especially tariffs, begin to weigh more heavily on recovery can be the most prudent way forward. RBI will thus remain data dependent, closely tracking the evolving developments, especially on external front
Disinflation meets MPC hesitation as RBI fears inflation edging higher next year
Despite a downward revision in the inflation numbers, the RBI preferred to take a forward-looking view, expecting inflation to edge back up next year.
Extended pause in RBI’s policy rate has likely started
With unchanged rates in this meeting, an extended pause is now underway. By the time the data starts showing a slowdown in quarterly GDP growth prints, inflation will likely have normalised to above 4%. This would surely constrain further monetary easing, going ahead
Limited space available for further monetary easing
Based on the current inflation outlook, the space for further easing is limited to 25-50 bps over the second half of this fiscal year
Opinion | RBI unlikely to go dovish unless growth is challenged, inflation outlook rules out further easing
Lower CPI inflation is no longer a sufficient criterion for easing; from the RBI Governor’s speech, it appears that Core inflation (which has been largely steady but seeing some uptick) will also become a monitorable going ahead.
Without technology, where’s the profit growth?
And the public private assets paradox
Quick Take: RBI lowers its inflation projection, but has it missed the bus on policy action?
Why did the RBI choose to worry about a higher 1-year ahead inflation when the increase would be mostly statistical?
Human-AI collaboration is transforming the way we work
Generative AI’s impact depends on how effectively organisations empower, train, and build trust with their people—creating a continuous learning cycle where human-AI collaboration drives innovation and growth
Brace for lower trading profits as market winds have changed direction
When the market is in no mood to yield profits to traders, don’t tempt fate by pushing your luck by trading more aggressively
US strategy to counter China’s mineral strengths is riddled with contradictions
The dependency-driven vulnerabilities on China could be lessened if Washington would take a comprehensive, competitive industry vision-driven approach to the problem, involving some resource-rich allies
Chart of the Day | Inflation’s dual dance: RBI’s MPC faces a tightrope walk
CPI eases to 2.1 per cent, but core inflation at 4.72 per cent keeps the Reserve Bank cautious ahead of its policy call
India, US & Russia: The great ‘pot and kettle’ game
India is not defending Russia’s war in Ukraine. It is defending its sovereign right to economic stability in the face of volatile global energy politics. It defends the principle that developing economies should not be asked to make sacrifices that wealthier nations themselves are unwilling to make
India’s not a ‘Tariff King’. Data shows its tariffs are in line with its peers
Tariff rates shouldn’t be viewed as an undifferentiated mass represented by a simple average. Countries typically having varying rates with some sensitive sectors getting more protection. Context matters. When viewed through the right lens, India’s anything but a closed market. It’s open, with its non-tariff barriers such as regulatory standards lower than Japan, South Korea or China.
Supreme Court’s recall of Bhushan Power and Steel judgement is a step in the right direction
The judiciary carries out the role of interpreting the law and it should harmonize its interpretation wherever possible with our social and economic development. While addressing procedural anomalies is important, it is crucial to remain mindful of the larger economic import and the primary goal of providing a second chance to failing but viable businesses
How to fix fixed income allocations amid rate cuts? Focus on real rates
Real rates matter more than nominal as they determine purchasing power and investment returns
Why the owner of London’s stock exchange needs a new name
Of the world’s top 10 exchange groups by market value, LSEG is the only one this year whose shares have fallen
Food safety cannot be a one-sided fight
Selective enforcement undermines consumer trust and fails to address the real risks across India’s food supply chain
Growing domestic power demand propels JSW-JFE’s electrical steel ambitions
The JSW-JFE combine is splashing out Rs 10,000 crore in existing and new investments to capture a sizeable share of the domestic electrical steel demand
Data Story: Trends in bank credit that should worry RBI
Unsecured retail has bounced back; gold loans are keeping up pace and MSME lending is the mantra for banks in Q1
How AIIB can help India ramp up its green capex
New Delhi should leverage the Beijing-headquartered AIIB’s plan to raise the share of private projects in its overall lending portfolio in India
Chart of the Day: Hydro power generation picks up pace after healthy rains
Thermal power generation, however, remains subdued on weak demand
An opinion born of frustration that is dead on arrival
In the case of the US, there are simply too many variables shaping Indo–US ties. Leadership factors, even if occasionally not healthy, are peripheral in shaping the bilateral relations. The dead economy comments against India were made less out of conviction and more out of frustration
