Private forecasting agency Skymet Weather projected the upcoming monsoon season to be 'normal' in India. The weather forecasting company, in its latest report, said it expects monsoon to the tune of a long period average (LPA) of 868.6 mm for the four month-long period between June and September.
Skymet expects the 2025 monsoon to be normal at 103% of the LPA with model error of plus and minus 5%. Skymet added that there is 40% chance of normal monsoon this year and 30% chance of it being 'above normal'.
Skymet retained its earlier estimates of a normal monsoon season. The company expects sufficiently good rains over Western and South India, and adequate rainfall in the core Monsoon rainfed zone of Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh.
However, excess rainfall in likely along the Western Ghats and specifically in Kerala, Coastal Karnataka and Goa. "Northeast region and hilly states of North India are likely to observe less than normal rainfall, during the season," the company further predicted.
The firm's Managing Director Jatin Singh said, "La Nina this season was weak and brief, too. The vital signs of La Nina have started fading now. The occurrence of El Nino which normally corrupts the Monsoon is ruled out. ENSO-neutral is likely to be the most dominant category during the Indian Summer Monsoon. The remnants of La Nina and ENSO-neutral together, will shield the monsoon from any egregious outcome. Preliminary Forecast of positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) will work in tandem with ENSO for better Monsoon prospects. Historically, ENSO-neutral coupled with positive IOD tended to produce a worthy Monsoon. The second half of the season is expected to be better than the primal Phase."
Also read: April-June to be hotter than usual, more heatwave days likely in many states, predicts IMD
Notably, the estimated normal monsoon would come after the unusually hot summers, as predicted by the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD).
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