India will begin lifting COVID-19 lockdown restrictions only between the fourth week of June and the second week of September, says a new study.
The “longer range” of lifting the restrictions was a result of expected challenges in India due to health system preparedness and record of public policy effectiveness, said the study by Boston Consulting Group (BCG).
In a statement, BCG said it regularly does scenario planning to support its clients with all kinds of business issues. “We analyse internally and externally gathered data to formulate these scenarios. For this unprecedented pandemic, with its extreme level of uncertainty, BCG does not claim to provide predictions about duration of lockdown, peak of viral infections, the efficacy of health systems, or other health and societal impacts,” it said.
“A BCG document, illustrating one scenario of how the COVID-19 virus might progress globally, has been circulating publicly without context or authorization from BCG. The projections contained in the document vary by 100-1000x, and were built to study one range of possible outcomes. This document does not represent an “official BCG view,” nor does it purport to state how the pandemic will pan out,” it said in the statement.
The government announced a lockdown on March 24, joining other countries such as the UK, Poland, Colombia to impose curbs on movement and business activities.
The report by BCG, an American consultancy firm, is centred on epidemic projection on COVID-19. This report represents estimates as of March 25, based on a predictive modelling leveraging John Hopkins University data with full modelling constraints.
The report provides estimated key dates of COVID-19 crisis on the following parameters:
- Status of the countries whether it is fully lockdown or not?
- Potential lockdown start dates
- The peak dates for respective countries.
- Short and long potential lockdown end date.
The BCG data suggests that the India lockdown started in line with China's timing of the lockdown.