In an interview to CNBC-TV18 SP Tulsian of sptulsian.com shared his reading and outlook on the market as well as on specific stocks.Below is the verbatim transcript of SP Tulsian's interview to Latha Venkatesh, Sonia Shenoy and Anuj Singhal.Latha: What did you make of the L&T numbers? Do they look up to your expectation or better your expectations?A: If you see the financial performance, I don’t think that has cheered because I am only focusing on the standalone number. There is no point in taking the consolidated call.If you see the infrastructure space, the infrastructure EBIT has fallen to about Rs 585 crore from Rs 771 crore. So definitely there is margin shrinkage and that is their main core business. I agree that I won't be calling it as a disappointment on an overall basis but if the main segment of the company has disappointed on the infrastructure space.The order inflow is quite cheerful of Rs 31,000 but I won't be going only on the order inflow alone that the order inflow has satisfied with Rs 31,119 crore order having come in with Rs 61,000 crore having bagged in H1 of FY17, maybe the situation going forward looks better but on the infrastructure, the main segment of the company, the EBIT of about Rs 585 crore seen a disappointment. So, I will say that overall results are looking okay, it is not very cheerful, it has not disappointed.Anuj: From the F&O stocks that have corrected quite sharply which ones would you buy, this pullback has to continue?A: There are umpteen long list and if you take a call, first I will go with automobiles like Hero Moto, M&M and Maruti. These three stocks fall in that category.Second is a cement space. Fortunately, if you see the extreme pessimism which was seen built up in the cement stocks, all got tapered off in the last three-four days and the renewed buying has come in. Maybe taking that into account, I will take a long position on ACC, may not be taking long position on Ambuja Cement but on ACC, Ultratech and consequently on Grasim and AB Nuvo also. So they are again looking quite good. Metal stocks like Hindustan Zinc and NMDC are also looking good.There are umpteen number of stocks available in F&O where short covering and the value buying both will emerge and I will go accordingly to take a call on those stocks.Latha: Just wanted to understand from a fundamental point of view -- the beating down of cement stocks, I assume, is because housing sector or real estate is expected to take a beating in the near-term. How much of cement demand is absorbed by the housing sector? Do you think it will be able to march on in spite of the downturn in real estate?A: Firstly, I don’t accept this argument that the things will go on a downward trend because we just draw any conclusion. I may sound little absurd. In the situation of the US president election, 99 percent people were saying that Hillary Clinton will win and if Trump comes, the economy of US will go into the drain, nothing has not happened. If you talk to the people, I had a talk with so many real estate holders in Jamnagar, Rajkot, Surat, Ahmedabad, Baroda, Jodhpur and Jaipur, they all say that land prices have fallen by about 40 percent. Things will be cheering for the housing sectors. All the builders are now waiting for the prices to settle down and the housing sector will take a big boost maybe in the next couple of months because people will start going for the land buying thereafter at a lower level.In Mumbai, if you recall, I have said that whatever information we have been receiving from Mumbai, it is totally different. In fact, I don’t substantiate that theory but all the builders have started repaying the money to their borrowers and one person who is the industry veteran in Mumbai real estate, he said that majority of the builders have turned debt free. Whatever maybe the reason, he has been giving a lot of theories which I don’t want to elaborate here. They say that now the prices will not fall here in the Mumbai city also because the land prices are not going to fall in Mumbai.So this is just an ill assumption in saying that housing sectors will take a big beating. Probably that may have been understood by the market and cement stocks have taken an upturn maybe in these last three-four days but on the other sectors like infrastructure spending, road construction, the focus of the government will be in a very big way on the infrastructure. That spending can obviously or can very well offset -- even if we see some kind of tapering off in the housing demand which I don’t think will lost beyond next couple of months.Sonia: Would you buy any of these non banking financial companies (NBFCs) liks Bajaj Finance, Bajaj Finserv now because many of these companies have a large exposure to financing of white goods like TVs, ACs, fridges etc. Considering white goods makers have been doing quite well? Is this a good time to be putting in any money here?
A: I have been saying this for last three-four days and yesterday afternoon also I said that I won't be taking a call on the white goods but definitely I am keeping a positive view on the NBFCs and the kind of rural inroads like Capital First, Bajaj Finance, Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services, their strong rural presence will be seen positive and this is what I have been saying for last one week that four sectors which really excites me now is NBFC and housing finance companies, first. Sugar sector is the second sector. Third sector is auto and auto ancillaries and fourth is cement sector.
However, if you take a call on the auto stocks live TVS Motor Company, Hero Motocorp, Bajaj Auto, Mahindra and Mahindra, Escorts, Maruti Suzuki, Atul Auto, they have all corrected by about 15-25 percent and all of them are looking quite good. You just cannot say that things will remain lull for next six months or so. Definitely things will take beating maybe in the month of December because of lower sales but you have seen that kind of erosion happening in the share price as well. So yes, coming to your question rather than taking a call on the consumer goods, I will be taking a positive view on the NBFCs those who have rural presence of which I have narrated three or four stocks.
Anuj: The logical extension, since you are so positive on auto stocks, what about tyre stocks which have also fallen but which have a bit of headwind of rubber prices?
A: The rubber prices have recently risen but I do not think that that will be a big hurdle but if you see the valuations of tyre stocks, in fact even in this correction I am not taking a specific call. If you take a call of Apollo Tyres, Ceat, JK Tyre and Industries, MRF, I do not think these stocks have corrected much in this carnage and apart from that you have the headwind of the rising rubber prices. I do not know how far that will get pass-through and all sort of things. So I won't be keeping a positive view on the tyre stocks purely from an investment point of view. However, as a trader you may take a position that the stock have corrected, let's take a trading view for a week or so but I won't be taking as an investor call on the tyre stocks because they have not corrected much in this carnage as well.
Latha: Will you start nibbling for value in Manappuram Finance or do you think we have to wait?
A: If I have to pick and choose between Manappuram Finance and Muthoot Finance, I will be going with Manappuram. Do not want to sensationalise the things here. The kind of news flows which we have been getting in case of Muthoot that there have been some kind of agitation or strike by the employees at their various branches and all sort of things. So that is scaring me but the kind of corrections which we have seen in having taken place in Manappuram - that is a screaming buy because it is a rural play, rural NBFC having a very strong presence. So keeping a positive view and giving a buy call on Manappuram at the current level.
Sonia: Some of the auto companies have already seen a big slide in their stock prices like Eicher Motors, Maruti etc. Do you think most of the damage is in the price or you foresee some more?
A: I have already said that I am a buyer on all the stocks; in fact I repeated the names but forgot to mention Eicher, which I am adding here. I will go with all the stocks whether two-wheelers, four-wheelers, commercial vehicles or maybe three-wheeler stocks like Atul Auto. Yes, I am positive on all the stocks and give a buy call on all the stocks.
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