ICICI Securities research report on The Phoenix Mills
The Phoenix Mills’ (PHNX) saw Sep’22 like-to-like (LTL) consumption across malls at Rs5.8bn or 115% of Sep’19 levels and mirrors the Jul’22 LTL consumption growth which was at 120% of Jul’19 levels and Aug’22 LTL consumption growth which was at 114% of Aug’19 levels. In Q1FY23 (Apr-Jun’22), LTL consumption growth across malls stood at 111% of Apr-Jun’19 (Q1FY20) levels which translated into Q1FY23 retail LTL EBITDA of Rs2.9bn or 115% of Q1FY20 levels. Similarly, in Q2FY23, LTL consumption growth stood at 118% of Q2FY20 levels. Owing to continued consumption strength, we model for FY23E rental income of Rs13.7bn (Rs12.2bn on LTL basis vs. Rs10.3bn in FY20). With Indore and Ahmedabad malls to open in H2FY23E and Pune (Wakad) and Bengaluru (Hebbal) in FY24E, we expect 17% rental income CAGR over FY20-25E.
We reiterate our BUY rating with an unchanged target price of Rs1,638/share based on 20% premium to our Mar’23E NAV of Rs1,371/share which includes increase in Palladium, Mumbai leasable area and considers growth opportunities from new office capex and new malls (including Surat). Key risks to our call are a fresh Covid wave impacting mall consumption and fall in mall occupancies and rentals.
At 17:30 Phoenix Mills was quoting at Rs 1,451.25, up Rs 28.05, or 1.97 percent.
It has touched an intraday high of Rs 1,470.00 and an intraday low of Rs 1,392.60.
It was trading with volumes of 8,948 shares, compared to its thirty day average of 15,280 shares, a decrease of -41.44 percent.
In the previous trading session, the share closed up 3.46 percent or Rs 47.55 at Rs 1,423.20.
The share touched its 52-week high Rs 1,470.00 and 52-week low Rs 884.30 on 07 October, 2022 and 08 March, 2022, respectively.
Currently, it is trading 0.48 percent below its 52-week high and 65.44 percent above its 52-week low.
Market capitalisation stands at Rs 25,915.28 crore.
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