Buy Capital First; target of Rs 960: Motilal Oswal

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26 Aug, 2025 12:21

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Motilal Oswal's research report on Capital First

The Boards of IDFC Bank (IDFCB) and Capital First (CAFL) have approved a merger of the two entities at a 13.9:1 swap ratio. We believe this merger would have benefits for shareholders of both companies, though near term regulatory & integration challenges persist.  The share swap ratio makes it attractive (~12.5% premium to CMP) for CAFL shareholders. Benefits to IDFCB shareholders will accrue more over a medium to long term perspective. On our proforma merged numbers, we expect ~20bp/200bp higher ROA/ROE for IDFCB by FY21. Without factoring in cost related synergy benefits, balance sheet realignment would drive 4-5% higher profitability for combined entity. While the merger would result in dilution of BVPS for IDFCB in the short term (INR41/44 in FY19/20E v/s INR48/51 earlier), we believe its growth and RoE profile would improve significantly post consolidation. We have a BUY rating on Capital First and revise target price to INR960 (earlier INR925) - 2.7x FY20 BV.

Outlook
We expect share price of CAFL to largely track the price of IDFCB in the ensuing quarters. We have a neutral rating on IDFCB.
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