Closing Bell: Nifty ends below 17,300, Sensex falls 304 pts; power, metal shine, auto drags

Nifty showed a marginal decline during the day, but closed flat. Nifty still has around six trading days before March 2022 expiry. Nifty is in a strong trend and the pattern of higher highs and higher lows are still intact on the lower time frame.

On the daily time frame, price continues to be in a steady up trend as MACD is in a buy mode and the RSI is in a steady uptrend. Nifty does show a potential to be in a steady uptrend till the end of March expiry.

On the upside, Nifty does have a potential to 17600-17900. Support for Nifty is at 16800-16900. Any fall to 16800-16900 is a buying opportunity. As long as support at 16800-16900 holds this market is a buy on dip opportunity.

Domestic equity market is stuck in a range for last couple of days amid increasing volatility. Despite opening in green, follow up buying was missing at higher levels. This led to downward pressure in the second half of the day with Nifty closing the day with loss of 70 points (-0.4%) at 17,246 levels.

Broader market ended mixed bag. Among sectors, metals were top gainers after some steel companies raised prices, followed by Oil & Gas, Pharma, Consumer Durables and Media. While Auto, Banking, Financial Services and Realty were among the losers.

Global market edged higher after the recent sell-off as investors digested US Fed’s aggressive approach to curb inflation and rising bond yields.

While the overall trend is positive, we expect market to consolidate in near term in the absence of any major news flow or developments. Markets are facing headwinds from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, volatility in Oil prices as well as aggressive stance from US central bank. Also second day of hike in domestic retail fuel prices added to overall cautious sentiments.

Nifty needs to hold and close above 17,350 for an upmove towards 17,500-17,750 levels. Strength in heavyweight sectors like Metals, Pharma and Oil & Gas are providing the much needed support to the market.

Markets traded lackluster and lost nearly half a percent amid mixed global cues. After the initial uptick, the benchmark gradually inched lower as the day progressed and settled closer to the day’s low. The hawkish statement from the US Fed on the possibility of aggressive rate hikes spooked investors.

Besides, mixed updates on the lingering geopolitical tension also dented sentiment. Consequently, the Nifty index ended lower by 0.4% to close at 17,245 levels. Meanwhile, sectoral indices traded mixed wherein Auto, Banking and Capital Goods ended with losses whereas Metal, Healthcare and Power ended with gains.

The move in the index so far shows consolidation after two weeks of rebound and it’s healthy. However, the prevailing uncertainty on the global front combined with the lack of any domestic trigger is keeping the participants on their toes. In such a scenario, we feel it’s prudent to stick with the sectors or themes which are doing well but avoid going overboard.

Volatility has continued to be the mainstay as the market is aware of some perils that could quickly snowball into a serious crisis going ahead. Despite some greenshoots in the form of FIIs turning net buyers in recent trades, investors remain wary of the Ukraine conflict, rising US yields and fluctuating crude oil prices which can turn the tables.

On intraday and daily charts, the Nifty is holding a higher bottom formation but at the same time it is consistently facing resistance near 17440. For the traders, the Nifty support has shifted to 17200 from 17000.

We expect the level of 17350-17440 if the index succeeds to trade above 17200. On the flip side, dismissal of 17180 may intensify further weakness up to 17100-17040.

The bullish momentum seen in early trades suddenly lacked conviction on the buy side as the bears took control of day’s session. The street will spy with one big eye if Nifty is able to weather overbought technical conditions on the daily charts, hawkish tunes from the Federal Reserve and the spike in oil prices.

Technically, the make-or-break of Nifty’s support is seen at its 200 DMA at 17021 mark, while expect a waterfall of selling below 17021 mark.

Russian oil is toxic and leaves a supply gap on the oil market, so far largely due to corporate reputational sanctions, less due to political sanctions. Interestingly, the Western world debate myopically circles around embargos and dismisses the economically superior option of punitive tariffs.

The uncertainty around further political actions keeps the market on its toes. We are looking at a price crisis, not a supply crisis.

The oil price spike looks set to follow a more or less known pattern. Such sharp up-moves usually follow down-moves within weeks and months, not years.

After the recent rally, market is getting cautious. Volatility is back due to inflationary pressures triggered by supply constraints.

While consistently rising input cost & fall in demand due to surge in covid cases in parts of the world, war & high commodity prices are impacting earnings growth which can lead to downgrade in outlook.

An end to the war & rise in supply can help India to sustain it resilience or else it will be a challenge in the short-term.

Today being the Second Anniversary of the Covid lows, Nifty has indeed traversed a long way by posting a whopping 127% return since then. The Indian investor has displayed the courage in transforming the investing landscape by believing in equities as an asset-class even as FPI's pulled out big time.

Metals bucked the general trend today led by steel & aluminium stocks on the back of price hikes. In the broader markets, the midcap index too posted smart gains with select constituents recording big gains today on the back of huge volumes.

Benchmark indices ended lower with Nifty below 17300 in the volatile session on March 23.

At close, the Sensex was down 304.48 points or 0.53% at 57,684.82, and the Nifty was down 69.80 points or 0.40% at 17,245.70. About 1424 shares have advanced, 1891 shares declined, and 118 shares are unchanged.

Kotak Mahindra Bank, HDFC, Britannia Industries, Bharti Airtel and Cipla were among the top Nifty losers, while gainers were Hindalco Industries, Divis Labs, Dr Reddy’s Laboratories, Tata Steel and UPL.

Among sectors, healthcare, metal, oil & gas and power indices ended in the green, while selling was seen in the auto, bank, capital goods and FMCG. The BSE midcap and smallcap indices ended on flat note for the second day in a row.

A meeting of the QIP Committee of the board of directors of Indian Hotels Company is scheduled to be held on March 25, 2022 to consider and approve the issue price, including a discount, if any, for the equity shares to be allotted to qualified institutional buyers.

Indian Hotels Company was quoting at Rs 215.75, up Rs 7.00, or 3.35 percent on the BSE.

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Arshiya Limited is pleased to announce the monetisation of its seventh warehouse by Ascendas India Trust (CapitaLand group), Singapore situated at the Arshiya Free Trade Warehousing Zone, Panvel, Navi Mumbai.

Ascendas Property Fund Trustee Pte. Limited (Singapore), the Trustee- Manager of Ascendas India Trust, has entered into definitive agreements for the proposed acquisition of 100% shares of Anomalous Infra Private Limited (a 100% subsidiary of Arshiya Limited), which owns a 0.33 million square feet warehouse at the Arshiya Free Trade Warehousing Zone, Panvel, Navi Mumbai today.

Arshiya was quoting at Rs 30.80, down Rs 0.15, or 0.48 percent on the BSE.