Global manufacturing rebounds in October; Asia leads as India, Thailand, Vietnam shine

India outshines others in PMI reading

Global manufacturing activity picked up pace in October, led by Asian economies such as India, Thailand, and Vietnam. Data from S&P Global showed that Asia’s manufacturing PMI (ex-China and Japan) hit a 14-month high, signalling stronger recovery momentum despite ongoing trade frictions and geopolitical uncertainty.

“Global manufacturing growth was again led by India, but October also saw increasingly strong performances in both Thailand and Vietnam as producers in these economies reported a thawing of concerns over the impact of US tariffs,” said Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist, S&P Global Market Intelligence. “Thailand's PMI was the highest since May 2023, while Vietnam's hit the highest since July 2024.”

India once again topped the global manufacturing rankings. The HSBC Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 59.2 in October from 57.7 in September, reflecting a boost from festive-season demand and the government’s GST rate rationalisation.

This marks the fifth time in seven months that the index has remained above 58, highlighting the sector’s resilience despite global headwinds. A reading above 50 indicates expansion.

“Looking ahead, future business sentiment is strong due to positive expectations around GST reform and healthy demand,” said Pranjul Bhandari, Chief India Economist, HSBC.

Thailand and Vietnam gain ground

Elsewhere in Asia, manufacturing activity strengthened sharply. Thailand’s PMI rose for the sixth consecutive month, climbing to 56.6 in October from 54.6 a month earlier — its sharpest improvement since May 2023.

Vietnam’s PMI surged to 54.5 in October from 50.4 in September, reaching a 15-month high, buoyed by a rebound in new orders and export demand.

“New export orders contributed to growth of overall new business, rising for the first time in a year, albeit only slightly,” S&P Global noted.

Collectively, the ASEAN manufacturing PMI rose to 52.7, the joint-highest level in over three years, indicating broad-based improvement in operating conditions across the region.

China, Japan, South Korea lag behind

However, not all Asian economies shared in the upturn. China’s manufacturing PMI fell to 50.6 in October from 51.2 in the preceding month, weighed down by declining export orders. South Korea also saw weaker factory activity as domestic demand and the impact of US tariffs continued to drag performance.

Japan’s PMI eased slightly as well, reflecting subdued external demand and supply-chain disruptions in some export sectors.

US and Europe stabilise, but confidence softens

In the US, manufacturing activity remained in expansion territory, with the PMI rising to 52.5 in October from 52.0 the previous month — the fastest pace of new order growth in 20 months.

“US manufacturers reported a solid start to the fourth quarter with production rising at an increased rate in response to an encouragingly robust jump in new orders. However, lift the hood and the picture is not so healthy,” Williamson cautioned/

The Eurozone remained broadly stagnant, with the PMI inching up to 50 from 49.8 in September, while the UK continued to contract, though at a slower pace, with the PMI rising to 49.7 from 46.2.

Trade slows, optimism endures

Despite India’s strong overall performance, export orders showed signs of moderation in October. The pattern was similar across most of Asia, with Thailand, China, Japan, and South Korea all recording weaker export order inflows. Vietnam stood out as the only major Asian economy to post a rise in new export orders.

Globally, export demand remained subdued. Both the US and Eurozone reported declines in new export orders, alongside weaker business confidence.

Eurozone manufacturers were “optimistic that output levels would be higher in 12 months’ time,” S&P Global said, but noted that expectations had “nudged slightly lower on the month and were weak by historical standards.”

In contrast, ASEAN manufacturers remained relatively upbeat.

“Manufacturers remain positive about their year-ahead outlook for output. If new orders continue to rise sharply as they have done in the latest survey period, and price pressures stay subdued, we can expect the ASEAN manufacturing sector to sustain its current level of growth as we conclude the year,” said Maryam Baluch, economist, S&P Global Market Intelligence.