Why Prakash Ambedkar’s decision to go solo may dampen MVA prospects in Maharashtra

Prakash Ambedkar

Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi chief Prakash Ambedkar’s decision to go solo in the upcoming parliamentary polls in Maharashtra comes as a major jolt for the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) formation in the state.

The MVA’s squabble over seat-sharing is now out in the open with Congress leader Sanjay Nirupam accusing Shiv Sena (Udhav Thackeray faction) of unilaterally declaring candidates in constituencies which were under the alliances’ consideration.

In the days leading up to his decision to contest the polls on his own, Prakash Ambedkar had expressed his displeasure over the ensuing seat-sharing talks and adequate hints at going solo in the upcoming general election.

The fight for Vidarbha

Political observers believe that Prakash Ambedkar’s decision to go on its own will significantly dent the vote-share of the MVA constituents going purely by the Lok Sabha poll figures of 2014 and 2019 in Vidarbha.

In both parliamentary polls, the Prakash Ambedkar-led outfit managed to bag most votes of Dalit, Muslims and other castes, which have traditionally supported the Congress. The split in vote directly benefited the BJP and the Shiv Sena that swept the polls by winning 41 out of 48 seats in 2019 Lok Sabha election.

Also Read: Prakash Ambedkar's VBA not to ally with MVA in Lok Sabha elections

Will VBA divide Dalit-Muslim votes?

In many constituencies of Maharashtra, the collective vote-share of VBA and Congress is more than the BJP. In the past, Congress leaders blamed VBA for the defeat on many seats by a close margin, which otherwise could have gone their way. Party insiders have stated that VBA is discreetly helping the saffron alliance.

Echoing similar sentiments, Ish Mishra, former assistant professor at Hindu College, Delhi University, said that Prakash Ambedkar's decision will indirectly benefit the NDA as its core Muslim and Dalit votes will be split among Ambedkar's outfit and the MVA constituents.

The academician added that VBA's experiment may tilt results in 8-10 Lok Sabha seats.  However, outside the realm of its influence, there is visible fear that this alliance may work as the ‘B-team’ of the BJP to disturb the unity of opposition voters, said Mishra.

The Ambedkar led outfit became a force to reckon with after it was rechristened as VBA from earlier Bharip Bahujan Mahasangh (BBM) on March 24, 2019. In the April 2019 polls, it garnered a collective 41.3 lakh votes from all 48 Lok Sabha seats in Maharashtra.

In the 2014 Assembly Elections, the BBM has contested 70 seats, garnered a meagre vote share of around 1% and was influential only in two or three districts (Akola, Balapur and Akot). However, it remained a powerful social voice of the Dalits, Adivasis and other marginalised groups and mobilised the downtrodden sections over the fundamental issues of human rights and social security.

As compared to 2014 polls, when BRP-BMS candidates contested in just four parliamentary seats and secured a total vote 0.75%, but won none, the party’s share in 2019 jumped to 14.75 %. Analysts termed it a ‘decent performance’ by a party that was formed just 20 days ahead of the first phase of voting held on April 11, 2019.

In 2019, the VBA was able to gather substantial votes, which caused the defeat of the Congress-NCP combine in nine seats. Two former Congress chief ministers Ashok Chavan and Sushilkumar Shinde lost due to the split in votes by the VBA.

Is VBA battle ready for 2024?

For the upcoming 2019 Lok Sabha Polls,  VBA has fielded Sanjay Kevat from Bhandara Gondia, Hitesh Madavi from Gadchiroli, Rajesh Bele, Vasant Magar from Buldhana, Prakajkta Pillewar, Rajendra Salunkhe from Wardha, Khemsingh Pawar from Yavatmal-Washim. The Congress and Shiv Sena (UBT) have announced candidates for most of these seats.

VBA chief Prakash Ambedkar appears confident of winning at least 6 Lok Sabha seats in the state, with the outfit willing to field as many as 46 candidates.