BUSINESS
Decoding Economics: The economic basis of identity politics
Development is not a smooth process; it disrupts the old social milieu and creates new winners and losers. The losers and winners both then mobilise along lines of identity, one to try for a bigger share of the pie, the other to preserve their share of the newly baked pie
ELECTION
Go out and VOTE
The best method to make more people vote is one that I have been advocating for a long time, but vested interests inimical to India have always managed to scuttle it. Basically, we need to have a scheme allowing voters to bet on the candidates of their choice
BUSINESS
Decoding Economics: Who gains, who loses from building roads?
A World Bank paper that studied the impact of the Golden Quadrilateral on the growth of firms shows that while survival rates increase for all plants as a result of their proximity to the road network, it is the younger plants who fare better. Older plants, in contrast, stagnate or contract, because of the increased competition
BUSINESS
Food inflation rises in April, caution should be the watchword for monetary policy
There is no hurry to ease monetary policy when the economy is booming
BUSINESS
How the national economic pie was shared
The NSO data show that the share of the household sector in gross value added, gross savings and gross capital formation have all come down
BUSINESS
Decoding Economics: US Fed paper says inequality increases financial vulnerability
The researchers find that a 1 percent increase in the top 1 percent wealth share predicts a 1.038 percent increase in equity valuations Manas Chakravarty
BUSINESS
Is Warren Buffett right about the fiscal deficit and what effect will it have on the markets?
Investors seem to be betting that they will have the best of both worlds -- the markets will rally on stronger growth, but if growth disappoints, they will rally on rate cut hopes
BUSINESS
Decoding Economics | The impact of monetary policy on stock markets
An RBI research paper studies the impact on the Indian stock markets of policy rate changes and of central bank communication on the future path of monetary policy
BUSINESS
Decoding Economics | AI is a magic bullet to increase productivity, finds BIS research
Strapline: BIS researchers find that while output always increases, it can grow by up to twice as much for the same AI-induced increase in productivity when AI affects sectors producing consumption goods rather than investment goods
BUSINESS
The mixed message from the global flash PMIs
While the April Flash Composite PMI shows growth slowing in the US, it’s getting better in the Eurozone, Japan and the UK, while Indian growth is red-hot
BUSINESS
IMF forecasts India will become fourth-largest economy by 2025, third by 2027
India has improved its per capita GDP ranking from 153 in 2018 to 144 in 2023, going past the Republic of Congo, Ghana, Kenya, Cambodia and the Lao People’s Democratic Republic. By 2029, it is forecast to overtake Uzbekistan, Papua New Guinea and Angola
BUSINESS
What the IMF forecasts say about India’s economic growth
The forecasts show tepid growth in investment as well as exports in the next few years
BUSINESS
MPC minutes: The many reasons for not cutting rates
Spikes in food inflation and geopolitical and financial uncertainty are holding back the MPC from cutting the policy rate
BUSINESS
Decoding Economics | How will the Second Cold War skew trade and investment?
A set of non-aligned ‘connector’ countries is rapidly gaining importance and serving as a bridge between blocs. Exports from these non-aligned economies are substituting for declining Chinese imports by the US
BUSINESS
IIP numbers show long-term decline in capital goods production
The sub-index of capital goods production in February 2024 was not only lower than in February 2019, but 10.6 percent lower than its level in February 2018
POLITICS
The spectre of an Iran-Israel war is the latest reminder of rising geopolitical risks for investors
There is only one nation that can put an end to the fighting and that is the United States
BUSINESS
Decoding Economics | Corporate debt and boom-bust cycles
While the authors’ research is based on a global sample of 115 economies, its conclusions fit very well with the Indian experience where the rise in corporate debt led to a huge rise in bad loans and the subsequent clean-up slowed the economy and led to an investment drought
BUSINESS
Consumer confidence recovers before general election, boosting BJP’s prospects
The RBI’s consumer confidence survey for March 2024 shows sentiment improving, just as it did in March 2019, before the last general election
BUSINESS
Green shoots in rural demand?
Taken together, recent news reports, higher rural wages, lower inflation and the fall in demand for work under MGNREGA could indicate the green shoots of a turnaround in rural consumption
BUSINESS
Share of informal employment is rising, it's a worrying trend
The percentage of workers in the non-agriculture sector working in informal enterprises has been continuously rising since 2017-18, according to the government’s PLFS data
BUSINESS
South Asia has a 'Jobless Development' problem, says World Bank
The World Bank says South Asia’s employment ratio is lower than that of other developing regions because of two primary reasons---low employment ratios for women and lack of jobs in the non-agriculture sectors
BUSINESS
What's behind the sudden boom in bank credit to MSMEs?
Bank credit to MSMEs in Jan-Feb was higher than even advances to the housing sector. Brighter business prospects and a regulatory change may explain the jump
BUSINESS
Decoding Economics | The implications of a Chinese manufacturing recovery
A research paper from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York spells out the effects of the Chinese government’s turn from real estate-led growth to increased investment in manufacturing
BUSINESS
April Fool stories
We bring you a few stories very appropriate for April Fools' Day 2024
