BUSINESS
Government survey of unincorporated enterprises provides further proof of rural distress
Not only are the predominantly informal workers paid a pittance, but the increase in rural wages for this category was a mere 0.55 percent over the period between April 2021—March 2022 and October 2022-September 2023
BUSINESS
RBI researchers predict higher growth, lower inflation than forecast by MPC for 2024-25
While the State of the Economy report is upbeat on the domestic economy, it finds plenty of warning signs about the US economy
BUSINESS
Decoding Economics: Where will the jobs come from?
A paper by well-known development economist Dani Rodrik and Nobel Laureate Joseph Stiglitz says that the changed global economy needs new strategies that focus on job growth in developing countries
BUSINESS
India’s goods exports are up, but they are only back to 2022 levels
Total exports in May 2022 were USD39 billion, compared to USD 38.1 billion in May 2024. The saving grace is that non-petroleum products exports are slightly higher
BUSINESS
IIP: What ails manufacturing in India?
Manufacturing growth has had a CAGR of just 2.67 percent in the six years to April 2024 and of 23 major industry groups, 10 have had a negative CAGR
BUSINESS
A tale of three inflations, with a twist at the end
Three major economies — US, China and India — reported inflation data. The overall conclusion is that emerging markets look attractive. But there's a fly in the ointment
BUSINESS
The depressing message from the Household Consumption survey
The top 5 percent in urban India spent 2.6 times more on cereals than the poorest 5 percent. And they spent one and a half times as much on cereals than those in the 40-50 percent fractile, which is Middle India. A similar gap exists in cereal consumption between the rich and poor in rural India. The point is: if they had the means, the poor would increase their intake of cereals, or consume a better quality of cereals
BUSINESS
Decoding Economics: India’s two hundred and fifty thousand democracies
Villages have seen the emergence of a new class of local political elites who are diverse and more representative of the underlying population than their higher-tiered counterparts
BUSINESS
RBI surveys indicate two economic reasons that may have worked against the BJP
The Consumer Confidence Survey’s Current Situation Index, which measures sentiment about current economic conditions, went down in May to 97.1 from a reading of 98.5 in March
LOK-SABHA-ELECTION
The return of political risk
For business and the markets, the election results are a big blow. But the good news from the poll verdict is the strengthening of Indian democracy
BUSINESS
Urban unemployment edges up in Jan-Mar 2024, but is well below pre-pandemic levels
India has improved its female labour force participation rate, but we still lag Bangladesh
BUSINESS
Some central ministries spent only a fraction of their budgets in FY24
The Ministry of Minority Affairs, as per the CGA figures, has spent a mere 6 percent of the amount shown in the revised estimate for 2023-24
BUSINESS
How has the structure of the Indian economy changed in the last 10 years?
The share of manufacturing has barely budged, despite the noise about the Make in India programme
BUSINESS
What were the drivers of GDP growth in Q4?
GDP growth in Q4, FY 24 has been very strong, but the laggards have been the agriculture sector and private consumption. The share of private consumption in GDP in the March 2024 quarter is the lowest since the March 2010 quarter
BUSINESS
S&P holds out a carrot for India, but with conditions
The rating agency says continued policy stability, deepening economic reforms, high infrastructure investment, high growth, along with cautious fiscal and monetary policy could lead to a higher rating over the next 24 months
BUSINESS
Decoding Economics: Do umpires play with a straight bat?
Did the temporary introduction of home umpires in international test matches during the pandemic lead to a bias in favour of home teams? A research paper from the IZA Institute of Labour Economics comes to some surprising conclusions
BUSINESS
Eleven-year high positive sentiment in May Flash PMI signals strong confidence about election outcome in Corporate India
The Flash Composite PMI for India came in at 61.7 for May, up from April’s final reading of 61.5, indicating strong growth momentum
BUSINESS
Decoding Economics: The economic basis of identity politics
Development is not a smooth process; it disrupts the old social milieu and creates new winners and losers. The losers and winners both then mobilise along lines of identity, one to try for a bigger share of the pie, the other to preserve their share of the newly baked pie
ELECTION
Go out and VOTE
The best method to make more people vote is one that I have been advocating for a long time, but vested interests inimical to India have always managed to scuttle it. Basically, we need to have a scheme allowing voters to bet on the candidates of their choice
BUSINESS
Decoding Economics: Who gains, who loses from building roads?
A World Bank paper that studied the impact of the Golden Quadrilateral on the growth of firms shows that while survival rates increase for all plants as a result of their proximity to the road network, it is the younger plants who fare better. Older plants, in contrast, stagnate or contract, because of the increased competition
BUSINESS
Food inflation rises in April, caution should be the watchword for monetary policy
There is no hurry to ease monetary policy when the economy is booming
BUSINESS
How the national economic pie was shared
The NSO data show that the share of the household sector in gross value added, gross savings and gross capital formation have all come down
BUSINESS
Decoding Economics: US Fed paper says inequality increases financial vulnerability
The researchers find that a 1 percent increase in the top 1 percent wealth share predicts a 1.038 percent increase in equity valuations Manas Chakravarty
BUSINESS
Is Warren Buffett right about the fiscal deficit and what effect will it have on the markets?
Investors seem to be betting that they will have the best of both worlds -- the markets will rally on stronger growth, but if growth disappoints, they will rally on rate cut hopes
