Early opinion polls peg BJP as clear favourite in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh

BJP

With the schedule for Assembly elections in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh now official, early opinion polls have placed the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the driving seat in both states.

Gujarat is ruled by the BJP, while the Congress currently governs Himachal Pradesh.

The election to pick members of the 182-member Gujarat assembly will be held in two phases. A total of 82 assembly seats will head to polls in the first phase on December 9 while voters in the remaining 93 constituencies will vote on December 14 in the second phase.

The 68-member Himachal Pradesh Assembly will go to the polls on November 9. Counting for both states will take place on December 18.

Himachal Pradesh

Himachal Pradesh (Seats)

The India Today-Axis survey released on October 24 suggests that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is set to form the next government in the Himalayan state. The BJP is expected to bag 43-47 seats in the 68-member assembly. The ruling-Congress party is expected to win 21-25 seats, while the other parties could win 0-2 seats.

The BJP is expected to win with a margin greater than what the Virbhadra Singh-led Congress achieved in 2012, when it won 36 seats.

In terms of vote share, the BJP is expected to bag 49 percent of the vote while the Congress may get 38 percent. Other parties and individual candidates could get 12-14 percent votes.

Himachal Pradesh vote share

Gujarat

All three leading surveys have put the ruling BJP ahead. The surveys released in October are placing the final tally around the same mark as the 2012 Assembly election result. The recent polls also show that the BJP could get 10-15 percent more votes than the Congress.

Gujarat (Seats)

The ABP News-Lokniti CSDS survey released on August 31 suggests that the saffron party will bag 144-152 seats while the Congress will have to settle for 26-32 seats. Other parties and individuals could win 3-7 seats.

Gujarat vote share (ABP News-Lokniti CSDS)

The survey puts the BJP's vote share at 59 percent. Congress' vote share is 29 percent and others get 12 percent of the votes.

The India Today-Axis survey released on October 24 states that the BJP is expected to win anywhere between 110 to 125 seats. The Congress could bag 57-65 seats and others could win 0-2 seats.

Gujarat vote share (India Today-Axis)

The opinion poll shows BJP winning with a 48 percent vote share. Congress manages 38 percent share of votes while others get 14 percent of the vote.

The Times Now-VMR opinion survey has also put the saffron party ahead with 118-134 seats. The survey says that Congress could win 49-61 seats and others could win 0 to 2 seats.

Gujarat vote share (Times Now-VMR)

The survey, released on October 25, puts BJP's vote share at 52 percent. Congress' vote share could be around 37 percent while others grab around 11 percent of the votes.