The Indian currency is celebrating the ruling government’s victory in Uttar Pradesh polls. Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) got a clear mandate in UP, the state which has the highest representation in the Rajya Sabha, with 31 members.
Speaking to CNBC-TV18, Ray Farris of Credit Suisse said that the rupee in the emerging market basket of 20 currencies which he covers is relatively strong. The Indian rupee has fallen by over 2 percent since November 8, but it is the best performing currency among the 20 currencies he looks at, he said.
In a CNBC-TV18, experts Ben Bei of CIMB and Irene Cheung of ANZ Research shared their readings on the market.
Ray Farris of Credit Suisse expects the Indian currency to depreciate to 67 versus the US dollar in the next 3 months and further to Rs 68.50 by the end of 2016.
Talking about the effects on Asian markets, Ray Farris of Credit Suisse says the most vulnerable countries are the ones which have an export basket similar to China‘s and exports a lot to China as an end user market.
If markets respond poorly to pricing of similar risks for countries like Portugal, Spain, Italy and even France over a period of time, there could be a bit of a shock, Farris says
US bond yields rose to 2.3 percent, falling from 2.45 percent it saw earlier in the week.
According to Ray Farris, director, Credit Suisse, the key cue for global currency market would be the extent to which this rout in equities continues.
Speaking to CNBC-TV18, Ray Farris, director, Credit Suisse says India is going into a period of positive seasonality and hence, the rupee and teh market is likley to perform well.
India‘s current account deficit for the quarter ended September shrank to USD 5.2 billion, or 1.2 percent of the GDP, compared to USD 21 billion (5 percent of GDP) during the same period last year.
The rupee is likely to be in the range of 58-62 against the dollar, Ray Farris, director, Credit Suisse said.
Ray Farris has a 12 month forecast of 66.50/USD on the rupee. He expects the currency to move in that direction till the current account balance improves. In the near term, for rupee to stabilise, tighter monetary conditions are needed
The Indian rupee on Tuesday hit a record low of 61.59 against the US dollar. According to Ray Farris of Credit Suisse, the rupee is likely to touch 61.50/USD in 3 months and 62/USD in 12 months. But after today‘s drop, he sees risk of an overshoot of those numbers in the short-term.
Considering the currency hasn‘t responded more forcefully to the recent tightening measures, the RBI probably should have tightened further. On T-bill rates, which are at 9 percent and 10 percent, considering CPI inflation is 10 percent, so in real terms, it is negative interest rates
If the RBI wants a stronger currency then it will have to raise rates, offer the markets higher yields. If the RBI does not raise rates, then it is going to discover again that its problem is large Current Account Deficit (CAD)
The current account balance isn‘t improving significantly even though the economy has weakened, says Ray Farris, director, Credit Suisse. The issue is less that foreigners are selling equity, its that India‘s current account deficit (CAD) requires a very large continual purchase by foreigners of equities.