Sharad Pawar, the Man of the Match in Maharashtra

Sujata Anandan

There are two major takeaways from the results of the Maharashtra Assembly elections. One, pride goes before a fall. Two, never underestimate your opposition.

The Bharatiya Janata Party, fresh from a sweeping Lok Sabha victory in May this year, did both -- allowed  its arrogance to get the better of its judgment and wrote the obituaries of all its opposition, including its ally, the Shiv Sena.

The results, however, have shown that even if there was a weak opposition who could not get a grip on the narrative, the people can halt its juggernaut. And that it overestimated those very people's faith or lack of judgment in choosing wisely at the polls.

At the start of the election process in the state, the BJP was full of the boast that it would win 220 seats out of the 288 in the Assembly in alliance with the Shiv Sena. It expected to cross the halfway mark all on its own, potentially relegating its ally to some 40-50 seats and banishing it to the sidelines forever.

But the results have come as a shock to the party which, at the time of writing, was struggling to break into the three-digit figure. What’s worse, the Congress and NCP, along with smaller allies, were running neck and neck with the BJP, and the Shiv Sena by and large holding on to its 2014 position.

The day clearly belonged to Pawar whose party, the Nationalist Congress Party, not only clearly surged ahead of  the Congress, which contrary to expectations maintained its 2014 position -- commendable under the circumstances -- but also  managed to show its star defector Udayan Raje Bhosale, the 14th descendant of Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj, the door.

With a resounding show of strength, Bhosale had won the Lok Sabha elections barely four months ago on an NCP ticket. It was the unfettered arrogance of both the BJP and the Maratha royal that they could together wrest the Satara seat from the NCP quite effortlessly that proved their downfall in this battle between two Marathas. The commoners rejected the royal and went for one of their own -- Shriniwas Patil, a former governor of Sikkim, and one-time bureaucrat close to Pawar -- despite the BJP's previous attempt to woo the Marathas with reservations and other sops.

The BJP suffered many more losses in its Assembly seats owing to its policy of importing candidates from other political parties, which left them with not just rebellion in their ranks but also a whole load of workers who refused to campaign for these imports and maximise the party’s wins.

The BJP is thus in a piquant situation wherein it wins the election and yet loses on moral ground, and it has only itself to blame. Throughout the campaign, it was dodging issues relevant to the state and focussing mostly on nationalism via Article 370.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BJP President Amit Shah covered much ground across Maharashtra with more than 30 meetings between them where they focussed on Kashmir rather than Maharashtra. Modi even told people who did not support the move to “doob maro" (die drowning).

Apart from the fact that Article 370 did not touch the lives of voters in Maharashtra in any way, the use of the words “doob maro" was exploited to the fullest by Pawar, otherwise the only leader focussing on state issues.

However, while the Shiv Sena and Pawar fought back hard for their respective survivals, the Congress -- quite leaderless and faction ridden -- surprised not just critics but itself by holding its 2014 position of 42 seats, which is commendable, considering its dismal state at the start of the election process.

It was obvious that its good going had little to do with its leadership -- or lack of it -- or poll strategy and more with the people’s ennui with the BJP. The Congress was mostly up against the BJP and has taken slightly less than half the BJP's tally while the NCP and the Shiv Sena were mostly up against each other and are nearly equal in their tally.

There are lessons here for both the main national parties – The BJP could be deliberately distancing itself from the people by its lofty campaigns and the Congress, under the circumstances, might do far better if it can get its act together.

As for Pawar, he is clearly the master of the game, starting from a position of utter depletion of his party’s human resources and turning the tables resoundingly on his tormentors. This election has proved why he remains the uncrowned king of Maharashtra.

Sujata Anandan is a senior journalist and author. Views are personal.