A continuation of warmer temperatures from the previous year will likely spell more trouble for India, as the country has witnessed a 34 percent rise in heatwave days since 2010.
The World Meteorological Organisation has warned that 2025 will likely be the third warmest year after 2023 and 2024, owing to a rise in greenhouse gas emissions.
A Moneycontrol analysis shows that India averaged 124 heat wave days between 2010 and 2023, compared with 93 witnessed during 2000-09 and 92 between 1990 and 1999.
Annual mean temperatures have also risen over the last two decades. Between 2010 and 2023, the annual mean temperatures at 25.9 degrees Celsius were 0.2 degrees higher than between 2000 and 2009.
North and east are feeling the heat
The rise in heat wave days has primarily come from Northern and eastern states.
The number of heatwave days has doubled for both Uttarakhand, to eight per annum between 2010-23, compared with four earlier, and increased 50 percent for Delhi and Uttar Pradesh, to eight from five between 2000-09.
Bihar and Jharkhand have also witnessed a doubling of heat wave days to average 8 and 10, respectively.
South is catching up as well. India’s weather body, Indian Meteorological Department, last week noted that Bengaluru is likely to be warmer than Delhi in 2025.
A heatwave day is classified as one in which the maximum temperature is 4.5-6.4 degrees Celsius above normal or if actual temperatures exceed 45 degrees Celsius for two consecutive days.
A rise in heat wave days is likely to keep food prices elevated in the coming year. Vegetable inflation remained in double-digit for 10 of the 12 months in 2024.
Besides, higher temperatures in May had lowered productivity and slowed manufacturing activity.
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