India Q3 GDP highlights: Economy grows 8.4% in Oct-Dec quarter; CEA says high-frequency indicators point toward good performance in Q4 too

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--That the economy continues to defy expectations underscores the structural transformation. So there is a case for global agencies to make an upward adjustment to their estimate of India's potential growth.

--High-frequency indicators point toward continued good performance in Q4 FY24 too. That is a good sign for the growth momentum.

Overall, the Indian economy ticks many boxes in the right way. If there are any question marks, they are coming from the global economy: CEA Nageswaran

Global demand has been a challenge given uncertain global growth... But India's external sector is not showing any signs of vulnerability.

--The free foodgrain scheme is shielding the poor from food inflation.

--Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran: The Q3 GDP growth rate is very strong. Of course, there is a slight downward revision to previous year's numbers so that creates a slight advantage in the form of a base effect.

--There is a lot of information to digest given the various revisions to past year's GDP data.

--Fall in share of private final consumption expenditure in FY24 to 55% of GDP is not a sign of weak demand or distress.

--The agriculture sector's gross value added (GVA) contracted by 0.8 percent.

--The overall GVA growth in October-December 2023 was 6.5 percent, down from 7.7 percent in July-September, while the full-year GVA growth has been pegged at 6.9 percent, up from 6.7 percent in 2022-23.

--Q3FY24 growth showed higher economic momentum, says Sakshi Gupta, HDFC Bank economist; farm growth lower at 3.8% YoY.

--This FY24, growth has accelarated despite rate hikes; In April, RBI is not expected to do anything but later on, the argument for rate cut may continue

--India's gross domestic product (GDP) grew 8.4 percent in the December quarter.

--Statistics Ministry's second advance estimates peg GDP growth at 7.6%, as compared with the first advance estimate of 7.3% released before the union budget in January.

The performance of the eight core sectors in January is as follows:
>> coal output up 10.2 percent as against 10.7 percent in December
>> crude oil output up 0.7 percent as against a fall of 1.0 percent in December
>> natural gas output up 5.5 percent as against 6.6 percent in December
>> refinery products output down 4.3 percent as against growth of 4.0 percent in December
>> fertiliser output down 0.6 percent as against growth of 5.8 percent in December
>> steel output up 7.0 percent as against 7.6 percent in December
>> cement output up 5.6 percent as against 3.8 percent in December
>> electricity output up 5.2 percent as against 1.2 percent in December

--April 2023-January 2024 core sector growth at 7.7% versus 8.3% in April 2022-January 2023.

--The production of Coal, Steel, Cement, Natural Gas, Electricity and Crude Oil recorded positive growth in January 2024.

--The government data also stated that the final growth rate of Index of Eight Core Industries for October 2023 is revised to 12.7 per cent. The cumulative growth rate of ICI during April to January, 2023-24 is 7.7 per cent (provisional) as compared to the corresponding period of last year.

Centre’s April 2023-January 2024 capex at Rs 7.21 lakh crore, 75.9% of FY24 target

The blockbuster 7.6 percent growth recorded in July-September resulted in a raft of upward revisions in growth forecasts for 2023-24, including by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), whose 'nowcast' — a more frequently updated forecast made using high-frequency data — pegs the third quarter growth rate at 7 percent.

--"Some moderation is expected in October-December GDP growth, with softer growth in manufacturing sector," said Gaura Sen Gupta, an economist at IDFC First Bank.

--Consumption growth in the quarter was "mixed", with retailers reporting a slowdown in sales growth, Sen Gupta said.

--Despite slower growth, India is likely to retain its position as one of the world's fastest-growing economies with estimated growth of 7.3% estimated in the current fiscal year, the government's first advance estimate shows, amid a faltering China and a eurozone narrowly escaping a technical recession.

--The Indian government will revise its full-year growth estimate today. Economists say India will keep its status as one of the fastest growing economies in the foreseeable future, helped by Prime Minister Narendra Modi's reforms.

--India's GDP growth likely declined to 6.5 percent in October-December 2023 from 7.6 percent the previous quarter, a Moneycontrol survey of 10 economists showed.

--India's GDP had grown just 4.5 percent in the third quarter of 2022-23.

--In its first advance estimate, the statistics ministry had pegged GDP growth for the current financial year at 7.3 percent. Economists polled by Moneycontrol see this being lowered to 6.9 percent in the second advance estimate.

There is uncertainty surrounding the GDP growth numbers for the quarter ending December due to a nearly 5 percent lower kharif output in 2023-24 compared to the previous year. However, the acreage under rabi has been higher, which could potentially offset some of the negative impact on GDP growth.

After recording a growth rate of only 1.2 percent in July-September, the lowest in four-and-a-half years, the Gross Value Added (GVA) in the farm sector is expected to have increased to 2-3 percent.