Rupee may fall past 90 per dollar as RBI ditches quasi-peg, research says

The Indian rupee has plumbed record lows in recent weeks, spurring speculation about the Reserve Bank of India loosening its tight grip on the currency under its new Governor Sanjay Malhotra.

The Indian rupee may fall past 90 per dollar this year as the monetary authority prepares to ditch the currency’s implicit quasi-peg to the dollar, according to Gavekal Research.

A bigger depreciation of around 10%, taking the rupee to 95 is “not out of the question,” analysts Udith Sikand and Tom Miller wrote in a note. The monetary authority faces the task of lowering interest rates without precipitating a steeper currency decline, they wrote.

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The Indian rupee has plumbed record lows in recent weeks, spurring speculation about the Reserve Bank of India loosening its tight grip on the currency under its new Governor Sanjay Malhotra. That compares to his predecessor’s approach which effectively fixed the currency to a crawling peg against the dollar.

“In the longer term, a correction of India’s overvalued currency may be a healthy development, especially if it helps India to boost its fledging export economy.”