The market made a good attempt at breaking out the downward sloping resistance trendline but closed a tad below on the Muhurat trading session on November 12. Still, the Nifty50 posted 1.5 percent gains for the week, ending at 19,525, the highest closing level since October 20, and continued forming lower highs for the second straight week.
If the Nifty50 decisively holds 19,500 as well as moved above the falling resistance trendline, then the index can start marching towards the high of October (19,850), where a tweezer top pattern was formed and the index had corrected sharply. However, on the lower side, 19,400-19,300 is going to act as a key support area, experts said.
"A sustained breakout above 19,500 could propel prices towards the descending trend line resistance around 19,600 and then towards the previous swing high of 19,850. Conversely, a failure to breach this hurdle might trigger a sell-off, causing prices to first retest the bullish gap created this week around the 19,300 - 19,270 zone and then further lower," Sameet Chavan, vice president - technical and derivative at Angel One, said.
Given the festive and truncated trading week, he feels the consolidation is likely to continue, and advised traders to closely monitor the levels for informed trading decisions. Despite the overall choppiness in key indices, individual counters displayed more stable movements.
According to Prashanth Tapse, Senior VP Research at Mehta Equities, if Mahurat session's bullish price action at Dalal Street is any indication then the short-term technical outlook for the Nifty continues to be in favour of the bulls. The Nifty’s biggest support is placed at 19,329, he said.
Let's take a look at the top 10 trading ideas by experts for the next three-four weeks. Returns are based on the November 12 closing prices:
Expert: Sameet Chavan, vice president - technical and derivative at Angel One
Ramco Cements: Buy | LTP: Rs 988 | Stop-Loss: Rs 918 | Target: Rs 1,090-1,150 | Return: 16 percent
With the Central Government’s focus on extensive Infrastructure development and India- based manufacturing; one sector that stands to benefit the most is the cement industry. Ramco has proven to be the strongest stock amongst its peers, maintaining its primary uptrend as indicated by the formation of higher highs and lows.
The stock recently experienced an increase in volume, when it broke above Rs 820 levels, driven by bullish Head and Shoulder technical pattern. The stock also trades comfortably, above its major EMA’s (50 and 200-day exponential moving average), indicating strong momentum tailwinds.
The weekly RSI-smoothened indicator for the stock is on the verge of crossing 70, which is signaling significant bullishness. We recommend buying for a trading targets of Rs 1,090 and Rs 1,150. The stop-loss can be placed at Rs 918.
ONGC: Buy | LTP: Rs 197 | Stop-Loss: Rs 188 | Target: Rs 210 | Return: 6.6 percent
ONGC has seen a significant up move in the current calendar year, outperforming the benchmark with a humongous move of nearly 40 percent YoY. The stock comfortably hovered above all its EMAs on the daily time frame, maintaining the cycle of higher highs – higher lows.
The technical indicators are very much in line with the robust move and are complementing the development. Being an index counter and having an outliner performance, we expect a continuation of the primary trend.
Taking all these evidences in mind, traders can look to buy for a near-term target of Rs 210. The strict stop-loss needs to be placed at Rs 188.
Expert: Jigar S Patel, Senior Manager - Equity Research at Anand Rathi
City Union Bank: Buy | LTP: Rs 143 | Stop-Loss: Rs 131 | Target: Rs 160 | Return: 12 percent
City Union Bank has been under pressure for some time, but at this juncture, it is trading near its crucial support. Previously, the stock turned from this level, and we saw a rally towards Rs 200.
On the weekly chart, a range breakout has seen with massive volume, which is looking lucrative. Thus, we advise traders to go long in the stock in the range of Rs 140-145, with a stop-loss of Rs 131 and a target of Rs 160.
Avenue Supermarts: Buy | LTP: Rs 3,802 | Stop-Loss: Rs 3,600 | Target: Rs 4,100 | Return: 8 percent
On a weekly scale, D-Mart has formed a solid base near Rs 3,600, exactly near its historical support of Rs 3,500. Moreover, the recent up-move is supported by decent volume which is looking lucrative.
On the indicator front, RSI (relative strength index) Weekly has taken support on 50 levels and reversed from there, thus hinting towards a bullish bias in the counter.
Thus, we advise traders to go long in the stock in the range of Rs 3,775-3,800, with a stop-loss of Rs 3,600 for the upside target of Rs 4,100.
Aarti Industries: Buy | LTP: Rs 520 | Stop-Loss: Rs 475 | Target: Rs 580 | Return: 11.5 percent
For the last two months, the said counter has been in selling pressure. There is a massive support near Rs 475-465 in the form of monthly central pivot range.
On the indicator front, the weekly MACD (moving average convergence divergence) has given bullish crossover which further hints towards a bullish bias in the counter. One can buy in the zone of Rs 505-515 and the target would be Rs 580 and the stop-loss would be Rs 475 on a daily close basis.
Expert: Vidnyan Sawant, HOD - Research at GEPL Capital
Cummins India: Buy | LTP: Rs 1,777 | Stop-Loss: Rs 1,650 | Target: Rs 1,980 | Return: 11 percent
In August 2023, Cummins India achieved a record high of Rs 1,980 but subsequently experienced a correction, reaching Rs 1,650 levels. Notably, it found support at the 34-week exponential moving average (EMA) and staged a rebound. Currently, the stock is sustaining its three-month high, indicating a positive outlook for the medium to long term.
In the recent week, the stock broke out of a downward-sloping wedge pattern, signaling the commencement of an uptrend. Furthermore, it exhibited a Change in Polarity (CIP) pattern in Rs 1,650–1,680 range, and the ensuing upward movement confirmed substantial bullish strength.
Crucially, the stock is trading above critical moving averages of 13 and 34-week, providing confirmation of the ongoing uptrend. The RSI on both daily and weekly charts consistently remains above the 55 mark, underscoring a positive market sentiment.
Looking forward, there is an anticipation of continued upward momentum in prices, targeting a level of Rs 1,980. It is advisable to implement a strict stop-loss at Rs 1,650, based on closing prices, to effectively manage risk in the market.
PI Industries: Buy | LTP: Rs 3,722 | Stop-Loss: Rs 3,500 | Target: Rs 4,000 | Return: 7.5 percent
Examining the weekly technical chart reveals a rising structure for the stock of PI Industries. Notably, there's a confirmed breakout of the Bullish Flag pattern, signaling the continuation of the current upward trend.
The ratio chart, comparing PI Industries to the Nifty Index, indicates that the stock has initiated a period of outperformance against the broader market. This reinforces our confidence in the validity of the flag breakout.
The RSI is consistently above its 9-period weekly average, indicating an improvement in momentum. The stock is trading above the key long-term averages, specifically 50, 100 and 200 EMAs (exponential moving average), confirming the existence of an uptrend.
Importantly, the bullish structure is backed by strong volumes, with the current week's volume breaking out of its 50-period weekly average.
Summing up the analysis, a positive trajectory is anticipated for the stock, with a potential target of Rs 4,000. It's crucial to note that this bullish view would be invalidated if the stock drops below Rs 3,500 levels.
Fortis Healthcare: Buy | LTP: Rs 358.70 | Stop-Loss: Rs 340 | Target: Rs 415 | Return: 16 percent
Fortis's stock is currently trading at an all-time high level, which indicates that the momentum behind the stock is very strong. The stock has been around the 310 level and has shown some brilliant price action developments.
In the past, from September 2021 to June 2023, that same Rs 310 level acted as resistance, but now it is providing support.
Last week, the stock successfully broke out of a consolidation zone, signaling a clear upward trend. This bullish sentiment is further supported by the stock consistently trading above its 26-week exponential moving average.
Additionally, the RSI on the weekly chart is notably above 60, underscoring the sustained positive momentum behind the stock.
Going ahead we expect the prices to move higher till Rs 415, where the stop-loss must be Rs 340 strictly on the closing basis.
Expert: Subash Gangadharan, senior technical and derivative analyst at HDFC Securities
Galaxy Surfactants: Buy | LTP: Rs 2,864 | Stop-Loss: Rs 2,640 | Target: Rs 3,400 | Return: 19 percent
Technical indicators are giving positive signals as the stock is trading above the 20 and 50-day SMA. Momentum readings like the 14-week RSI too are in rising mode and not overbought, which implies potential for further upsides.
With the intermediate technical setup too looking attractive, we expect the stock to move up towards its previous intermediate highs in the coming weeks. The stop-loss is at Rs 2,640 while target is at Rs 3,400.
Transport Corporation of India: Buy | LTP: Rs 898 | Stop-Loss: Rs 806 | Target: Rs 1,050 | Return: 17 percent
Transport Corporation of India is in a strong uptrend. The stock has been continuously making higher tops and higher bottoms over the last several months. Last week, the stock has broken out of a 7-week range on the back of huge volumes.
Technical indicators too are giving positive signals as the stock is trading above the 20 and 50-day SMA (simple moving average). Momentum readings like the 14-week RSI too are in rising mode and not extremely overbought, which implies potential for further upsides.
With the intermediate technical setup too looking attractive, we expect the stock to move up towards new life highs in the coming weeks. Buy between the 890-900 levels. Stop-loss is at Rs 806 while target is at Rs 1,050.
Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
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