Adrian Mowat, JPMorgan says investors' fears entering 2015 include a sharp fall in oil prices signaling deflation and increasing the risk of defaults/fiscal stress, slowing growth in China, plus event risks such as Greek exit from the euro and Venezuelan EMBI spreads above 20 percent.
“Investors are less focused on lower energy prices driving faster real income growth. Countries that suffer from lower oil are just 22 percent of MSCI EM. This, combined with our call that correlation will remain low between countries, means we see more upside than downside in emerging markets (EM). We see current weakness as an opportunity to buy our overweight markets,” he adds.
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