Chartist Talk | Sudeep Shah bullish on 6 stocks, stays bearish on TMPV next week

Last week, the benchmark Nifty remained confined to a narrow 321-point band, marking its tightest weekly trading range since the first week of October. Despite this limited price movement, volatility stayed elevated, with the index opening each session either on a gap-up or a gap-down. This unusual mix of sharp intraday volatility and compressed weekly range pointed to a clear phase of uncertainty, where both buyers and sellers avoided taking decisive bets.

The index eventually closed near the 25,966 mark, forming a small-bodied candle with wicks on both sides — a classic sign of indecision that often precedes a meaningful directional move, prompting speculation about the market’s next course.

One of the key technical highlights of the week was Nifty’s ability to hold above its 50-day EMA and rebound smartly from lower levels. This price action has led to the formation of an Adam & Adam Double Bottom pattern on the daily chart. Going forward, a convincing breakout above the neckline resistance could act as the catalyst for a strong upside move, though confirmation will depend on how the broader market aligns with this setup.

Adding to the constructive undertone, the broader indices — Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty Smallcap 100 — also witnessed a sharp bounce from their recent lows. Both indices printed small-bodied candles with long lower shadows, signalling renewed demand at lower levels. In this backdrop, Monday’s session assumes added significance for the broader market, as the next move could decide whether the recovery remains stock-specific or expands into a broader-based rally.

From a levels standpoint, the 26,050–26,100 zone on Nifty represents a key neckline resistance. A decisive breakout above 26,100 could open the door for a sharp rally towards 26,300, followed by 26,500 in the near term. On the downside, the 25,770–25,700 zone is expected to offer strong support, supported by the confluence of the previous swing low and the 50-day EMA, making this range a critical battleground that will shape the market’s next trending phase.

Do you think the rally, if any, will be driven by technology or banking stocks, given their heavy weightage in the benchmark index, based on your reading of the sectoral charts?

Given their heavy weightage in the benchmark index, Banking and IT are currently playing a crucial stabilising role in the market. The ongoing and healthy sectoral rotation between these two pockets has helped the index absorb selling pressure elsewhere and avoid a deeper correction.

From a technical standpoint, the prevailing chart structure of both sectors suggests that they are well-positioned to continue providing support to the frontline indices, making them the likely drivers of any near-term rally.

What are your top two stock picks for the upcoming truncated week?

APL Apollo Tubes

Over the last three sessions, APL Apollo has outperformed major frontline indices, supported by solid volumes and robust bullish momentum. The stock has also given a downward sloping trendline breakout on the daily chart. All crucial moving averages have started to turn upward, pointing to improving trend strength.

The daily RSI remains firmly in bullish territory, and the MACD histogram signals rising positive momentum. Hence, we recommend accumulating the stock in the zone of Rs 1,820-1,800 levels with a stop-loss of Rs 1,740 level. On the upside, it is likely to test Rs 1,950 in the short term.

Bharat Forge

Bharat Forge recently found support near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of its prior rally (Rs 1,179–1,460), aligning with the 50-day EMA, and has since resumed its upward movement. On Friday, the stock delivered a breakout above a downward sloping trendline, accompanied by healthy volumes.

The daily RSI remains in bullish territory and continues to rise, reinforcing the improving trend structure. Hence, we recommend accumulating the stock in the zone of Rs 1,440-1,425 levels with a stop-loss of Rs 1,380 level. On the upside, it is likely to test Rs 1,550 in the short term.

Do the charts convince you to buy Tata Elxsi and Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles?

The charts present a divergent technical picture for the two stocks.

In the case of Tata Elxsi, the technical setup looks encouraging. The stock has registered a clear falling channel breakout on Friday, supported by robust volumes, which adds credibility to the move. Additionally, prices have reclaimed both the 20-day and 50-day EMA, signalling a short-term trend reversal. Most notably, the daily RSI has moved above the 60 mark for the first time since September 2025, indicating strengthening momentum. Based on this structure, the stock appears well-positioned to extend its pullback rally and could test the Rs 5,750 level in the near term.

On the other hand, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles continues to exhibit a weak technical structure. The stock remains below its key moving averages, keeping the broader trend firmly bearish. Momentum indicators are also aligned on the downside, suggesting the absence of any meaningful buying strength at present. Therefore, the stock is likely to remain in a bearish to sideways phase in the short term, rather than offering an immediate buying opportunity.

Are you bullish on Vodafone Idea, KEI Industries, and JK Tyre?

Yes, the charts remain constructively bullish for all three stocks, supported by strong price and momentum characteristics.

In Vodafone Idea, the stock is displaying a clear sequence of higher tops and higher bottoms on the daily chart, reflecting a sustained improvement in price structure. Additionally, it is trading above its key moving averages, which are acting as dynamic supports. Momentum indicators further strengthen the bullish case, with the daily RSI firmly placed in the super-bullish zone as per RSI range-shift rules, indicating strong underlying demand.

The technical setup of KEI Industries also looks encouraging. The stock has witnessed a decisive breakout above a horizontal trendline on the daily timeframe, accompanied by notably higher volumes, which validates the breakout. It is now trading comfortably above all its important moving averages, with their slopes turning upward. Importantly, the daily RSI has crossed above the 60 mark for the first time since mid-October, signalling a revival in bullish momentum.

Similarly, JK Tyre is exhibiting strong bullish characteristics. The stock has broken out of a 30-day consolidation range on the daily chart, supported by volumes above the 50-day average. It is currently trading at a 52-week high, with all key moving averages aligned positively. Momentum indicators continue to confirm strength, as the daily RSI has moved above 60 and the MACD histogram has turned positive, reinforcing the continuation of the uptrend.

Overall, the technical structures across all three stocks support a bullish bias in the near term.

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