The Indian market fell more than 1 percent last week and the March F&O series closed with a loss of more than 5 percent. The sell-off was more intense in the small-cap and mid-cap space.
Experts feel that volatility is likely to continue as every rise in the market is countered by selling pressure. Banks will be in focus as more short positions were rolled over in the April series.
Data suggests that rollovers to the April series have been a tad higher, with a very high rollover cost of 110 points, indicating that a mix of long and short got carried forward to the next series. The Nifty futures rollovers stand at 82 percent, compared to the 3-month average rollovers of 77 percent.
Equity derivatives expire on the last Thursday of every month and rollover happens till the close of trading hours on that day. Rollover indicates the interest of traders in holding a position for the next month as well.
Open Interest (OI) is the total number of outstanding contracts held by market participants at the end of the day. It indicates the trend in the F&O market and measures the flow of money into the futures market.
The OI of Nifty is starting on the lower side of around 98 lakh shares. On the other hand, the Bank Nifty data is quite opposite, as it has seen huge addition of around 110 percent in OI, indicating a short build-up, said a Sharekhan report.
On the options front, the maximum Put OI is seen at 14,000, followed by 13,500 strikes while the maximum Call OI is placed at 15,000 followed by 16,000 strikes.
Options data suggest an immediate trading range in between 14,000/14,200 to 14,800/15,000 zones for the April series.
“We believe that a sustainable upmove may re-emerge if the Nifty moves above 14,800. Otherwise, the Nifty may consolidate with a positive bias, with a stiff resistance of 14,800-14,900,” ICICIdirect said in a report.
“The roll spread has increased significantly further and Nifty April futures ended with a premium of more than 100 points, which remains a worry for upsides. On the lower side, major options concentration is seen at the 14,000 Put strike in weekly and monthly expiry. Decline towards this zone is still a buying opportunity,” it said.
The report further added that while the index may witness some consolidation after the sharp upmove in the past one year, the broader markets are likely to continue their performance in the near term, while stock-specific moves are likely to remain in the limelight.
We have collated a list of top 10 buy ideas by experts for the April series:
Expert: Sumeet Bagadia, Executive Director of Choice Broking
Godrej Consumer Products: Buy| LTP: Rs 710| Target: Rs 750-800| Stop Loss: Rs 670| Upside 5%
On the weekly scale, the stock is bouncing back after taking strong support around the 670 level, which is a 38.2 percent retracement level of its previous move. This suggests a positive move in the counter.
Moreover, the stock has confirmed a Hammer Candlestick pattern, with the support of its horizontal trend line, which can be considered as a Bullish Reversal formation and indicates an upside movement in the counter.
On the daily chart, the stock is giving a breakout from its ‘Consolidation Phase’ as well. It is trading above its 21-Days Exponential Moving Average, which indicates that the stock could see a northward movement.
Hindalco Industries: Buy| LTP: Rs 327| Target: Rs 365-390| Stop Loss: Rs 290| Upside 11%
On the daily chart, the stock has confirmed a Hammer Candlestick pattern, which suggests an upside movement in the stock.
Moreover, the stock has been trading above its 21-Hourly Moving Average, which suggests that the stock has a great potential to move further.
Furthermore, the stock price has pulled back from the lower Bollinger Band. This indicates bullish sentiments in the counter.
Based on the above technical structure, we are expecting an upside movement in Hindalco in the upcoming trading session.
HDFC Bank: Buy| LTP: Rs 1492| Target: Rs 1580-1640| Stop Loss: Rs 1440| Upside 6%
On the weekly chart, the stock has formed a Doji Candlestick Pattern, with the support of 21-week Moving Averages, which suggests strength in the counter.
On the daily chart, the stock has formed a Hammer Candlestick pattern, which points out the northward journey in the counter.
A daily momentum indicator, RSI reading, is at the 46.45 level, with a positive divergence that points to a positive breath in the stock.
Expert: Aditya Agarwala, Senior Technical Analyst, YES SECURITIES
Shree Cement: Buy| LTP: Rs 28090| Target: Rs 30000| Stop Loss: Rs 27200| Upside 7%
The stock has turned upwards from the 50 percent Fibonacci retracement level, and is on the verge of a breakout from trendline resistance at 28,700. A successful breakout on healthy volumes will resume the uptrend.
The RSI has also turned up after forming a positive reversal, confirming the bullishness.
SAIL: Buy| LTP: Rs 76.70| Target: Rs 87| Stop Loss: Rs 71| Upside 13%
The stock has broken out from a bullish Flag pattern on very good volumes, triggering the resumption of the uptrend.
It is trading well above all its major moving averages, confirming the bullishness. The RSI is also favouring an upmove..
Titan Company: Buy| LTP: Rs 1506| Target: Rs 1610| Stop Loss: Rs 1450| Upside 7%
The stock is on the verge of a breakout from a Triangle pattern resistance line placed at 1,515. A successful breakout on higher volumes will resume the uptrend.
Further, the 20-DMA is also about to make a bullish crossover with the 50-DMA suggesting bullishness building up in the stock.
The RSI has turned upwards after forming a positive reversal and positive DI and crossed over to the negative DI, confirming strength.
Expert: Sameet Chavan, Chief Technical & Derivatives Analyst at Angel Broking
Asian Paints | Buy | LTP: Rs 2,498 | Target price: Rs 2,610 | Stop loss: Rs 2,458 | Upside: 4.5%
Paint stocks had a quiet period of a couple of months and we witnessed a decent price as well as time-wise correction in most of those counters.
Asian Paints, being the giant in this space, has always been a rank outperformer over the years.
Last Friday, we witnessed the first sign of strength after a while as the stock managed to come out of its recent congestion phase.
The stock corrected after a good move and then went into a consolidation mode.
It seems to have completed its corrective move and look poised for an uptrend.
We recommend going long on dips for the target of Rs 2,580 – Rs 2,610 in the coming days.
JSW Energy | Buy | LTP: Rs 88 | Target price: Rs 93 | Stop loss: Rs 83.20 | Upside: 6%
Since March 2020, this stock has been maintaining its sturdy structure and we can see a series of higher highs higher lows on all timeframe charts.
It is interesting to see that despite a lot of stocks from the broader market going through some price correction in the last few days, this stock chose to move sideways.
Due to last Friday’s move, a breakout from the small triangle is visible on the daily chart.
It is accompanied by a decent rise in volumes, and, hence, we expect the stock to do well in the next few days.
Brokerage: SMC Global Securities
Gujarat Gas Limited: Buy| LTP: Rs 517| Target: Rs 575| Stop Loss: Rs 480| Upside 11%
The stock made a 52-week low of Rs 201.05 on March 25, 2020, and a 52-week high of Rs. 566.70 on March 2, 2021. The 200-Day Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 369.32.
The short-term, medium-term, and long-term biases are looking positive for the stock as it is trading in higher highs and higher lows on charts.
Apart from this, it is forming a ‘Bull Flag’ pattern on weekly charts, which is bullish in nature. Moreover, technical indicators such as RSI and MACD are also suggesting an uptrend for the stock.
Therefore, one can buy in the range of the 510-514 levels for the upside target of 560-575 levels, with a stop-loss below the 480 levels.
PI Industries Limited: Buy| LTP: Rs 2271| Target: Rs 2420| Stop Loss: Rs 2160| Upside 6%
The stock made a 52-week low of Rs 970.10 on March 25, 2020, and a 52-week high of Rs 2,650 on December 8, 2020. The 200-Day Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 2,057.07.
After a massive upside move, the stock has consolidated in a narrow range with a positive bias, forming a ‘Symmetrical Triangle’ on the weekly charts. This is considered to be bullish.
Last week, the stock tried to give a breakout of the same but couldn’t hold the high levels due to market volatility but the bias is still positive for the stock.
Therefore, one can buy in the range of the 2,230-2,240 levels for an upside target of 2,420-2,450, with a stop- loss below the 2,160 levels.
Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
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