The National Statistical Office (NSO) has released the gross domestic product (GDP) growth estimates (October-December) quarter of the current financial year.
Has the Indian economy rocketed back to positive growth? Which are the sectors that have revived faster? Which are the laggard sectors? What has been the pace of infrastructure project execution? How far is the manufacturing sector from reaching pre-Covid levels?
The national income statistics will offer cues on some of these questions.
India GDP LIVE Updates | Mr. Raghvendra Nath, Managing Director, Ladderup Wealth Management-
The overall economy of the country is hurtling back to normalcy and these numbers are on expected lines. India is very well positioned to bring its Economy back on track thanks to a successful containment of the pandemic across the country. The Economic growth in the coming year is expected to remain robust with a broadbased momentum across various sectors. The government’s focus on infrastructure, real estate demand on the back of low-interest rates, recovery in commodity prices, and healthy consumption expenditure all point out to good times for the GDP. The private and foreign investment is also on the rise and capex should be higher than the previous years, aiding the long term growth.
India GDP LIVE Updates | Dr. M Govinda Rao Chief Economic Advisor, Brickwork Ratings-
The second advance estimate and the third quarter estimate of GDP released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MOSPI) are on expected lines. The estimate of 1% growth in GVA and 0.4% growth in GDP marks the ending of the recessionary phase. In fact, all the sectors except (i) Mining and Quarrying, (ii) Trade, Hotels, Transport and communication services and (iii) Public administration, defence and other services have recorded positive growth in the third quarter.
India GDP LIVE Updates | Mr. Niraj Kumar, Chief Investment Officer, Future Generali India Life Insurance Co Ltd-
"With Q3FY21 GDP growth turning positive, the strong recovery can surely be deemed as nothing less than ‘outstanding’, as we are the only third economy posting growth for the quarter amongst 16 major World economies. This GDP reading clearly testifies the resilience of the Indian Economy vs its global counterparts and reinforces the strong fundamentals of the country. The Indian economy has seen a sharp rebound from the onslaught of the Covid-19 pandemic, thanks to the financial vaccine administered by the government and central bank in the form of Quintessential fiscal reforms and monetary policy support along with the mega vaccination drive. With Pro-growth budget reforms and RBI’s resolve to support the financial markets and economy, the Indian economy is well poised to ride the long term structural growth path."
India GDP LIVE Updates | Mr. Rohit Poddar, Managing Director, Poddar Housing and Development & Joint Secretary, NAREDCO Maharashtra-
With the unlocking of the economy, the operations were expected to scale up leading to revenue generation. This is reflecting in the Q3 economy data citing the recovery after two quarters. The service sector needs to be mobilized for GDP to expand at an accelerated pace. The nation-wide vaccination drive may help bring normalcy to the services sector.
Apart from the agricultural output which was aided by a normal monsoon year, the construction and real estate sector output helped the GDP growth. The high traction in the real estate sector was on the back of the reduction in stamp duty and other levies in the state of Maharashtra. This has played a crucial role in attracting home buyers to invest in homes and pushing the real estate market towards a higher growth trajectory
India GDP LIVE Updates | Nikhil Gupta, Economist - Institutional Equities, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd-
India's real GDP grew 0.4% YoY in 3QFY21, primarily because of downward revision (from 4.1% to 3.3%) in 3QFY20. Without base revision, there was a decline of 0.6% YoY in the quarter. The consensus was +0.5% and our forecast was -0.7%. Investments were the primary driver (up 2.1% YoY vs. a fall of 28.2% in 1HFY21) of better GDP growth in 3QFY21, while consumption (down 2.2% YoY vs. a fall of 16.7% in 1HFY21) remained a laggard. Nominal GDP grew strongly at 5.3% YoY last quarter, implying that GDP deflator was 4.8% YoY in 3QFY21. Surprisingly, CSO expects a contraction of 1.1% YoY in 4QFY21, implying 8% fall in FY21. This is highly unlikely. We believe real GDP could grow 3.5% in the current quarter, leading to a decline of 6.7% in FY21”
India GDP Data LIVE Updates | Dr. Joseph Thomas, Head of Research - Emkay Wealth Management-
The Q3 GDP number indicates growth at 0.40 %, reflecting the recovery in growth across a spectrum of sectors. Finally, economic growth is in the positive territory. But the trajectory of growth would depend to a significant extent on the efficacy with which the second wave of the pandemic is contained, if it happens, as appropriate growth supporting fiscal and monetary policies are already in place. There are sectors like education, hotels and restaurants and travel and tourism , which are yet to be open fully and there are short term lockdowns in several cities as of now. If it deepens further then Q4 growth may be impacted.
India GDP LIVE Updates | Sanjay Kumar, Partner, Deloitte India-
The latest GDP data for the third quarter FY ending 2021 is in line with the overall estimates as presented in the budget figures for FY 20-21. This was the quarter when the economy was reopening tentatively. Impact of Q1 and Q2 is still there. It is still taking time to wear off.
My understanding is that the real push will come in the Q4 2021, because lockdowns on many sector, particularly hospitality and travel eased substantially during this quarter. It is hoped that it remains that way, given the uptick in Covid19 cases in some pockets and in some states. Important to note that the states coming under uptick constitute large part of industrial activity, and that is important for Q4 and the next financial year.
India GDP LIVE Updates | Suman Chowdhury, Chief Analytical Officer, Acuité Ratings & Research:
"The Q3GDP of 0.4% is in line with our forecasts and reinforces our expectations on the ongoing economic revival in India. It also formally marks the end of the recessionary environment triggered by the global pandemic. Private consumption has grown strongly on a QoQ basis by 18.5% in Q3 and is lower by only 2.3% compared to that in Q3FY20. What is encouraging is the YoY growth in gross fixed capital formation by 2.58% which implies that the focus on enhanced capital expenditure by the government has started to yield dividends. This is further reinforced by the healthy growth in construction GVA of 6.2% and 21.9% on a YoY and QoQ basis respectively. It is heartening to note that the trade, hospitality and transport segment GVA which has been the most affected due to lack of mobility, has grown by 13.1% on a QoQ basis and has exceeded over 90% of that in the previous year, reflecting the improvement in mobility indicators. The momentum in the manufacturing sector is however, a bit of concern ; while manufacturing GVA has moved back to positive territory, growing 1.6% on a YoY basis, it has partly benefited from a lower base in the previous year."
India GDP LIVE Updates | Krish Raveshia, CEO at Azlo Realty
"Q3 growth rate swinging back in the positive territory is in line with most estimates, supported by high government spending, reform measures, and progressive unlocking. A good monsoon and supply-side concerns addressed reflected positively on agriculture output.
The stamp duty cut announced by the Maharashtra state government and the subsequent high sales witnessed is reflecting in the performance of construction, finance, insurance, and the real estate components. The real estate sector has a multiplier effect on the economy, had a positive impact on the steel and cement sector too. The pace of vaccination, stable interest rates, bond yield, and unlocking measures will guide the growth rate for Q4FY21 and FY22."
India GDP LIVE Updates | Dr Joseph Thomas, Head of Research - Emkay Wealth Management
"The Q3 GDP number indicates growth at 0.40 %, reflecting the recovery in growth across a spectrum of sectors. Finally, economic growth is in the positive territory. But the trajectory of growth would depend to a significant extent on the efficacy with which the second wave of the pandemic is contained, if it happens, as appropriate growth supporting fiscal and monetary policies are already in place. There are sectors like education, hotels and restaurants and travel and tourism , which are yet to be open fully and there are short term lockdowns in several cities as of now. If it deepens further then Q4 growth may be impacted."
India GDP LIVE Updates | Dhiraj Relli, MD & CEO, HDFC securities
“The Q3 GDP growth number at 0.4% is lower than our estimates of 0.8% but quite short of some other estimates which were in the range of 1.4-2%. The GVA growth of 1% is however a little ahead of our estimates of 0.7.
While construction growth has pleasantly surprised, the growth of private final consumption, Govt final consumption and industry disappointed. The variance of the GDP growth number with the buoyant corporate profits, GST collections and other high frequency indicators data needs more scrutiny. The informal sector of India accounting for a large portion of the GVA still does not seem to have come out of pain but the recent Govt measures may play a role in alleviating some of their problems.
The downward revision of FY21 GDP in the second advance estimates to -8% is also a bit disappointing.
The equity markets may be a tad disappointed with these data points but the mood at this point is anyway somber."
India GDP LIVE Updates | Sanjay Kumar, CEO & MD, Elior India
“The GDP data is a cause for cheer as it shows the economy is beginning to turn around. Whilst the growth is marginal it is still a growth and that is cause for celebration. However, the 6.5% decline in the GVA will be something to watch for and track. The next quarter is going to be crucial to assess if private investments and consumption are picking up.
The current recovery could partly be driven by pent-up demand and hence a uptake in actual normalized demand will be a key driver to assess the robustness of the GDP recovery. Also, the fact that we are beginning to see a pickup in industrial activity augurs well for improvement in private consumption."
India GDP LIVE Updates | Samantak Das, Chief Economist and Head Research & REIS, JLL
“The Indian economy has exited an unprecedented technical recession faced due to the pandemic by registering a growth of 0.4 % in Q3 FY 21 after a consecutive 2-quarter contraction during Q1 and Q2. Our country is one of the few major economies to experience growth recently. This is mainly attributable to the significant easing of restrictions and commensurate public spending.
We believe that this growth will instill further positive sentiment in the economy with consumer demand and investments getting over the adverse impact of the COVID-19.
The gradual revival of the economy will lead to growth of the commercial real estate in a phased manner. Office markets across top 7 cities are expected to witness total net absorption of 30 mn sq. ft during 2021 as against slightly over 25 mn sq. ft in 2020.
On the other hand, the residential real estate backed by economic revival and improving employment scenario is expected to witness further green shoots of recovery due to a very positive environment for home purchase - lowest home loan rates, realistic home values and offers by developers. This affordable synergy makes it a great time to purchase a home."
India GDP LIVE Updates | Gross fixed capital formation sees growth
Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), which means net investment, was 33 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in the October-December quarter of 2020-21 compared to 31.8 percent in July-September quarter of 2020-21, and 32.3 percent a year ago as per the data released by the National Statistical Office on February 26.
Gross fixed capital formation witnessed an expansion as the country's economy rose by 0.4 percent.
For developing countries like India, it is crucial to invest heavily in fixed assets and thereby increase the overall demand.
GFCF is an indicator for gauging the fixed capital formation.
A downward trajectory in gross fixed capital formation would indicate that the fixed capacities are not being ramped up. (READ MORE HERE)
India GDP LIVE Updates | Eight key takeaways from the Q3 GDP data
India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures for the third quarter of 2020-21 were released on February 26. Here are the key points at a glance.
India GDP LIVE Updates | Aditi Nayar, Principal Economist, ICRA Ltd:
The core sectors eked out a marginal YoY rise of 0.1% in January 2021, benefitting from an expansion in electricity, fertilisers and steel. Disconsolately, the other five core sectors recorded a contraction, and the overall growth eased a tad from the upwardly revised yet equally lacklustre 0.2% in December 2020 (initial -1.3%). Based on the available data for the core sector, merchandise exports and auto output, we project the growth in the Index of Industrial Production to remain subdued at 0.5-1.5% in January 2021.
While steel output has expanded at a steady pace for the second consecutive month, the pace of contraction in cement production eased in January 2021.
An unfavourable base effect underpinned the deterioration in the performance of coal into a contraction of 1.8% in January 2021 from the 2.2% growth in December 2020.
While the growth in electricity generation remained steady, the data released by POSOCO reveals a modest decline in demand growth to 4.8% in January 2021 from 5.0% in December 2020. During February 1-25, 2021, the growth in electricity demand eased further to a modest 3.2% in YoY terms.
India GDP LIVE Updates | Rajani Sinha, Chief Economist & National Director – Research, Knight Frank India:
“With the economy moving towards normalcy, most economic indicators had been improving in the last few months and hence the movement of third quarter GDP growth to the positive territory does not come as a surprise. As expected, the manufacturing sector has bounced back recording a positive growth. Strong revival in construction sector has also boosted overall GDP growth. Among the service sectors, positive growth in Financial services and real estate sector bodes well for the economy.
With the pent-up demand taken care of in the last few months, going forward it will be critical to see at what level the economic growth momentum is sustained. The government’s measures to support capital expenditure will help sustain growth in the medium to long-run. But for the near-term, acceleration in consumption spending would be important to propel India’s growth momentum. Increased threat of second wave of COVID infection in India would be a critical aspect to watch out for, as worsening of situation could have a huge bearing on consumer sentiments and spending”
India GDP LIVE Updates | Siddhartha Sanyal, Chief Economist and Head of Research, Bandhan Bank-
The 0.4 percentyear-on-year growth in real GDP is broadly in line with street expectation and is significantly stronger than the GDP prints witnessed during the previous two quarters. The current print will likely further boost the expectation of a 7-8 percentyear-on-year contraction in real GDP during FY21.
India GDP LIVE Updates | DK Joshi, Chief Economist, CRISIL-
Consumption of services are down and will not normalize anytime soon. Expect revision in GDP numbers.
India GDP LIVE Updates | Sameer Narang, Chief Economist, Bank of Baroda-
The large informal component in the Public administration segment of GDP is yet to open up.
India GDP LIVE Updates | Sameer Narang, Chief Economist, Bank of Baroda-
(We) expect 2 % growth in Q4.
India GDP LIVE Updates
|Upasna Bhardwaj, SeniorEconomist, Kotak Mahindra Bank-
Surprised with the government spending numbers. Probably States spent less in Q3, we will have to see what is the driver for investments in Q3.
India GDP LIVE Updates | Upasna Bhardwaj, Senior Economist, Kotak Mahindra Bank
Q3 GDP numbers are in line with expectations but some internals don’t seem to be adding up.We were at 0.3% in our GDP estimates. There is some activity happening on the construction side, broadly, GDP numbers are not surprising.
India GDP LIVE Updates | DK Joshi, Chief Economist, CRISIL-
(We) expect 1 percent growth in Q4.Consumption of services are down and will not normalize anytime soon.
India GDP LIVE Updates | Anubhuti Sahay Head, South Asia Economic Research (India) Standard Chartered Bank-
The governmentspent a lot in the December quarter. Surprised by growth in construction on Q3. Expect the gap between GDP and GVA to be revised.
India GDP LIVE Updates | Raghvendra Nath, Managing Director, Ladderup Wealth Management-
The overall economy of the country is hurtling back to normalcy and these numbers are on expected lines. India is very well positioned to bring its Economy back on track thanks to successful containment of the pandemic across the country. The economic growth in the coming year is expected to remain robust with a broad-based momentum across various sectors. The government’s focus on infrastructure, real estate demand on the back of low-interest rates, recovery in commodity prices, and healthy consumption expenditure all point out to good times for the GDP. Private and foreign investment is also on the rise and CAPEX should be higher than the previous years, aiding the long term growth.
India GDP LIVE Updates |
CARE Ratings-As the revenue and expenditure numbers are now juxtaposed against the revised budgetary numbers, the position looks comfortable. The fiscal deficit target of 9.5% will be met and can be bettered in case there is any rationalization of expenditure in March. Revenue collections though short in income, corporate and GST has been compensated for by higher excise collections.
India GDP LIVE Updates |
India's gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter of FY21 rose marginally at 0.4 percent, in line with expectations, reaffirming that the economy had managed to exit the coronavirus pandemic-led slump by 2020-end, according to official data released by the National Statistical Office on February 26.
The GDP for FY21 is expected to shrink by a slightly larger margin of 8 percent, according to the government's updated official forecast.
For more, read the full article here.
India GDP LIVE Updates |
FY21 GVA growth seen at -6.5 percentvs CNBC-TV18 poll of -6.7 percent
India GDP LIVE Updates |
Q3FY21 GDP growth at 0.4% vs -7.5% (QoQ)
India GDP LIVE Updates |
FY21 GDP is seen contracting 8 percent
India GDP LIVE Updates
| India Q3 GDP is0.4 percent
India GDP Live Updates |
January's 8 core industries growth at 0.1 percent vs 0.2 percentin December. As for April -January, the8 core industries output at -8.8 vs 0.8 percentyear-on-year.
India GDP LIVE Updates | April-January Fiscal Deficit Data year-on-year (Source: CNBC)
India GDP Data LIVE Updates |
January fiscal deficit at Rs 75,500 crore vs Rs 53,700 crore (YoY) (CNBC-TV18)
india GDP Data LIVE Updates
|April-January fiscal deficit at Rs 12.34 Lakh Crore Vs Rs 9.85 Lakh Crore (YoY) (CNBC-TV18)
India GDP LIVE Updates |
India's economy was likely to have returned to growth in the December quarter, data due around 1200 GMT is expected to show. Economists polled by Reuters forecast GDP to grow 0.5% as the economy stabilised after contracting 7.5% in the July-September quarter. (Reuters)
India GDP LIVE Updates | DBS Bank report projects full year growth in real terms may be at negative 6.8 percent
Projecting that the gross domestic product (GDP) may have returned to the black in the last quarter of the calendar year 2020, DBS Bank in the report said the full-year growth in real terms may be at a negative 6.8 percent.
DBS Group Research economist Radhika Rao said sharp improvement in the COVID-19 situation and rising public spending are the two factors that bode well for December 2020 quarter.
India GDP Data LIVE Updates | Teresa John, Research Analyst (Economist) at Nirmal Bang Equities-
GDP in 3QFY21 (due on Feb 26) is likely to come in flat at 0% against our earlier estimate of a 2.1% decline. The upward revision in our estimate is on account of a sustained rebound in the manufacturing sector, aided by strong performance of the listed corporate sector and most importantly a rebound in government spending in 3QFY21. The rebound in government spending is likely to sustain in 4QFY21 as well, going by the revised fiscal deficit estimate of 9.5% of GDP for FY21. We now expect GDP growth to return to positive territory in 4QFY21 at ~1.5% YoY. Consequently, we have raised our GDP estimate for FY21 to a 7.5% decline from an 8.5% decline earlier. For 3QFY21, we expect the agriculture sector to grow by 3.4% YoY, unchanged from 2QFY21, driven by a strong Kharif season. Industry (excluding construction) is likely to grow by 3.7% YoY in 3QFY21 compared to a growth of 0.1% in 2QFY21. The manufacturing sector, which we expect to grow by 4.8% YoY in 3QFY21, will lead the recovery in industry.
India GDP LIVE Updates |
The NSO (National Statistical Office) will release gross domestic product (GDP) growth estimates for the third quarter (October-December) 2020-21 later today.
Many analysts have placed high chances on India’s real GDP growing at more than 0 percent in October-December 2020, marking a return to a positive trajectory after two-quarters of a deep slide
India GDP LIVE Updates
| India Ratings and Research on Wednesday said it estimates the gross domestic product (GDP) growth to bounce back to 10.4% year on year (YoY) in FY22, driven by the base effect.
"Although the recovery in FY22 on a YoY basis will be V-shaped, the size of the GDP will barely surpass the level attained in FY20 and will be 10.6% lower than the trend value. The impact of COVID-19 pandemic and lockdown on the economy, although subsiding, will continue to delay the normalisation of economic activities in the contact-intensive sectors till the mass vaccination/herd immunity becomes a reality," the agency said.
