Buy NTPC; target of Rs 439: ICICI Securities

ICICI Securities's research report on NTPC

We attended NTPC’s analyst meet (on 18 Aug’25). In a bid to play a key role in India’s energy transition, NTPC, a thermal power giant, is transforming itself into a diversified power genco. It has raised its capacity target to 149GW by FY32 (vs.130GW earlier) with a massive capex outlay of INR 7trn. While the company is expanding its coal-based portfolio with 26- 27GW new capacity, it is planning to go greener with 60GW RE capacity by FY32. The RE capacity addition will be led by its listed green subsidiary (NTPC Green Energy) which has contracted and awarded capacity of >23GW. It is also expanding its footprint into new avenues such as green hydrogen and its derivatives, energy storage and nuclear energy (targeting 30GW nuclear capacity by FY47). We believe the company is well positioned for a steep growth trajectory; however, on-ground execution (which has improved in FY26 - YTD) will be a key monitorable. We reiterate BUY.

Outlook

We reiterate BUY on the stock with target price of INR 439, valuing the thermal business at 15x FY27E EPS and NGEL (RE portfolio) stake adjusted and discounted by 20%.