Economic Survey 2023 Highlights: The Economic Survey 2023 was tabled by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman today in Parliament a day before she presents the Union Budget for 2023-24. The Economic Survey, a flagship document of the government, pegged economic growth forecast for FY24 at 6-6.8 per cent. While presenting the survey, Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran said that India is poised to perform well in this decade on the back of reforms ushered by the Modi government in the last eight years.
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Economic Survey 2023: Here's a quick guide
The document, prepared by a team of economists led by chief economic adviser V Anantha Nageswaran, analyses developments in the economy in the past year and makes projections for the following year. Here are some of the key takeaways:
Growth
The Indian economy is expected to expand 7 percent in real terms in 2022-23, following the 8.7 percent growth in 2021-22. The survey notes that the economy had staged a full and broad-based recovery in 2021-22 and was positioned to ascend to the pre-pandemic growth path.
Inflation
India’s retail inflation rate peaked at 7.8 percent in April 2022, above the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) upper tolerance limit of 6 percent. The overshoot of inflation above the upper end of the target range in India was, however, one of the lowest in the world.
Fiscal developments
The government’s finances showed a resilient performance during the year, aided by the recovery in economic activity, buoyancy in revenues from direct taxes and goods and services tax (GST).
Monetary management
The growth in credit off take is expected to sustain, and combined with a pick-up in private capex, will usher in a virtuous investment cycle.
Economic Survey 2023: Policy aspirations to achieve better quality of life
The Economic Survey 2022-23 under the section titled growth magnets in this decade notes that going forward, there will be Initiatives to sensitise the population towards a healthy lifestyle and introduce strategies to arrest and reverse the rising obesity levels.
According to the latest National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5) data, obesity levels in India have increased between the years 2019-2021 and one in every four persons is overweight compared to one in every five earlier. The family health survey notes that there is an overall increase in mean Body Mass Index from 21.9 in 2015-16 to 22.4 in 2019-21.
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Economic Survey 2023: Optimistic growth outlook carries seeds of potential fiscal slippage, says Nomura
"We believe that over-optimism on growth may limit the extent of potential expenditure consolidation and boost revenue projections in the FY24 Budget. This in turn would make it difficult for the government to fiscally ‘walk the walk’ if growth prospects disappoint, as we expect," says Nomura Holdings on Economic Survey 2023
The Japanese financial holding company and investment bank expects the government to announce a 5.9% of GDP fiscal deficit for FY24 in the Union Budget tomorrow, with the focus on capex.
Economic Survey 2023: How growth keeps missing Survey forecasts
If one looks at the growth forecasts made by the last five Economic Surveys, they have all been missed.
Over the last five years, actual GDP growth has missed the midpoint of the Economic Survey'sforecasts by a massive 409 basis points on average.
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Economic Survey 2023: CEA draws out two points showcasing his optimistic outlook on India's growth
The Economic Survey 2023 is rife with hope, stating that India’s growth outlook is better than it was in the pre-pandemic years. Banks are healthy, the digital revolution is making the economy more efficient — a large part of which is now formalised — and financial inclusion is at its peak.
Taking this into consideration, the optimistic CEA Anatha Nageswaran points out that India’s macroeconomic parameters, spanning from growth to debt sustainability, are in sound condition, and also, the economy will now begin to show the full virtuous effect of the reforms that the government has taken over the past years.
Economic Survey 2023: CEA says FY24 GDP growth forecast hinges on oil staying below $100/barrel
"It is difficult for us to give a prediction for the oil price. RBI takes a number that is below $100 per barrel. And we can live with that number and be able to achieve the growth rates that we have projected in the Survey," Nageswaran said.
"The uncertainties with respect to the oil market are tremendous. As long as they stay at a number that is less than $100 per barrel, I think the real GDP growth projections will remain undisturbed," the CEA added.
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Economic Survey 2023: Congress chief Mallikarjun Kharge on President's address
Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge told PTI: President's address is government's statement that has come through President. It is not a new thing... It is only routine matter and she has expressed those programmes and achievements which govt wanted her to say.
Economic Survey 2023: Key reactions from economists, policymakers & markets
Here are some key reactions of economists, policymakers and market participants compiled by Moneycontrol:
Vinod Nair, head of research at Geojit Financial Services
“The Economic Survey is optimistic that India will continue to grow at a healthy rate in the medium term, led by consumption and capital expenditure... For the budget, it is going to be a challenge in FY24 to plan out expenditure due to a short-term slowdown in the economy, high core inflation, and fiscal deficit.”
Lakshmi Iyer, CEO-investment advisory, Kotak Investment Advisors
“ All eyes are now on the budget, which could determine the trajectory of growth as well as the direction of interest rates, given the borrowing programme that will be announced tomorrow. Key to watch will be the gross borrowing numbers, which we estimate should be Rs 16 lakh crore.”
Economic Survey 2023 shows women in labour workforce undercounted
The participation of women in the labour force in India is underrepresented because of measurement issues, according to the Economic Survey 2023, calling for an improved quantification of “work” through redesigned surveys.
Adding the correct proportion of women in the official labour force participation rate (LFPR) results in an augmented female LFPR of 46.2 percent, which is much higher than the 32.5 percent estimated by the conventional definition.
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Economic Survey 2023 emphasises on India's green hydrogen mission
Green hydrogen will be crucial for India's economic development, energy security and achieving decarbonisation of harder to abate sectors, according to the Economic Survey 2022-23 released on January 31.
"From the emerging global momentum on green hydrogen, India can situate this decarbonisation opportunity not just within the context of a low-carbon economy but also as an enabler of energy security and economic development for the nation," it stated.
Economic Survey 2023: ECLGS borrowers had lower NPA rates
The Economic Survey 2023 showed that the mostly micro, small, and medium enterprises that availed of an emergency credit scheme repaid a large part of what they owed.
A report from credit information company CIBIL showed that the scheme supported MSMEs facing the COVID shock, with 83 percent of borrowers being micro-enterprises. Among the micro units, half had an overall exposure of less than Rs 10 lakh.
Economic Survey 2023: PLI schemes to create 60 lakh jobs, textile & auto in focus
Investments of Rs 47,500 crore were seen under the Production Linked Incentive (PLI) schemes in FY22, which is 106 percent of the designated target for the year. Production/sales worth Rs 3.85 lakh crore and employment generation of 3 lakh have been recorded due to PLI schemes, said the Economic Survey 2023.
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Economic Survey: Promoting international trade in rupee to help reduce currency volatility
Economic Survey 2023 on January 31 showed promoting international trade in the domestic currency will help in protecting the rupee from volatility and reduce cost of doing business in the global markets.
The survey suggested that it could assist Indian exporters in getting advance payments in rupee from overseas clients and in the longer term promote the domestic currency as an international currency once the rupee settlement mechanism gains traction.
Economic Survey 2023: Snapshot of more formal employment options by govt
Economic Survey 2023: India's quality of life
Economic Survey 2023: Pick-up in private sector investment in agriculture
The agriculture sector in India has grown at an average annual growth rate of 4.6 percent during the last six years, stated Economic Survey 2023
Decoding Economic Survey 2023: India's credit growth graph
Economic Survey shows India's growth has nearly recouped what was lost, renewed what had paused amid COVID-19. The growth in bank credit to agriculture, industry, services and personal sectors is picking up. Here's a snapshot
Decoding Economic Survey 2023: Govt enlists India's challenges since 2005
Decoding Economic Survey 2023: Govt enlists India's challenges since 2005
Economic Survey 2023 shows govt is on track to achieve fiscal deficit target despite pressures: CII President
Reacting to the Economic Survey 2022-23 tabled in the Parliament today, Sanjiv Bajaj, President, CII stated the Survey has showed that the government is on track to achieve the fiscal deficit target for the year despite fiscal pressures, which is commendable. "This would not only help maintain credibility and macro-economic stability but would also create the space for increasing capex significantly, especially in the infrastructure sector, to drive the economic growth engine in the current year and beyond."
India's inflation likely to be 'well behaved' in FY24, says CEA Nageswaran
CEA Ananth Nageswaran says by and large, inflation is likely to be ''well behaved'' in FY24 barring headwinds
Economic Survey 2023: CBDC will boost digital financial services
The Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) will boost the financial services sector, enable financial inclusion, reduce costs of managing cash and boost innovation in the cross-border payments space, the Economic Survey 2023 has said.
The endorsement comesthree weeks after RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said that the cross-border trade settlement in rupee and CBDC has a huge potential.
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Economic Survey 2023: We don't make forecasts about the rupee, says CEA
On India's rupee depreciation amid global cues,CEAAnanthaNageswaransays, "Wedon't make forecasts about the rupee."
Meanwhile, the rupee depreciated 52paiseto 82.04 against the US dollar in intra-day trade on January 31after the Economic Survey 2022-23 said the domestic unit may remain under pressure on account of plateauing of exports and subsequent widening of the current account deficit.
Forextraders said significant foreign fund outflows and a muted trend in domestic equities also dented investor sentiments.
Economic Survey 2023: CEA Nageswaran on India's GDP growth
CEA Anatha Nageswaran says, "We haven't given up hope of 8 percent GDP growth. We can strive for, be able to achieve the growth if several dimensions are addressed."
Economic Survey 2023:
We don’t have to speak about COVID-19 pandemic recovery anymore, says CEA
Economic Survey 2023:
We don’t have to speak about COVID-19 pandemic recovery anymore, says CEA
Economic Survey 2023: CEA Nageswaran on global oil prices
"As long as oil prices remain below $100/barrel, projected growth rate would remain undisturbed"
Economic Survey:
Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran saysthe Survey predicts a GDP growth rate of 6.5 percent in a range of 6-6.8 percent for FY24. The range is deliberately asymmetric given the global uncertainties.
Economic Survey 2023: Lackluster year for primary markets but SME IPOs encouraging
According to the Economic Survey 2023, FY23 has been lackluster in terms of fund mobilisation through initial public offerings (IPOs) so far, but the number of small and medium enterprises (SME) rushing to D-Street has been encouraging. Between April and December 2022, about 85 SMEscame out with their public issues. During the same period, BSE SME IPO index jumped nearly 73 percent."Compared to FY22 (until November 2021), this year, not only did the number of SMEs coming with IPOs almost double, but the total funds raised by them were almost three times the funds raised by them in the same period last year," said the Economic Survey that was tabled in Parliament on January 31. (Read more)
Economic Survey:
Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran says,ultimately, investments must translate into employment... As the private sector investment begins to kick in and construction sector comes back to life, the employment scenario will pick up.
Economic Survey:
Financial markets do not treat advanced and emerging economies similarly on fiscal deficits. Therefore, it stands to reason that they reap greater rewards for fiscal prudence. “Amidst the continuing global uncertainties and risks, the fiscal glide path illuminates the path for fiscal policy.
Economic Survey:
Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran says,there was talk of India having prematurely deindustrialised. "I would say India had not industrialised enough."
Economic Survey:
Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran says,because of the government's health insurance programme,out of pocket health expenditure for families has reduced from 66% to 48%.
Economic Survey:
Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran says,it is my belief that India's digital infrastructure can add around 60-100 basis points to India's potential GDP growth rate.
Economic Survey:
Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran says,the digital infrastructure can help the hitherto excluded sections get a fair shot at accessing national and international markets.
Economic Survey:
Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran says,there is a lotof justified optimism about India's digital public infrastructure.
Economic Survey: Vaccination coverage led to migrant workers returning to construction sites fueling the housing market
Vaccinations have facilitated the return of migrant workers to cities to work in construction sites due to rebound in consumption which has had a ripple effect on the housing market, according to the Economic Survey.The inventory overhang in the housing market has also saw a significant drop and fell to 33 month in Q3 of FY23 (October-December) from 42 months last year, it said. (Read more)
Economic Survey:
Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran says, it's not just that quality of government expenditure has improved in recent years, but the government has also become more transparent about it's numbers.
Economic Survey: Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran says, more than 7 lakh cases have been resolved even before entering the IBC process. This isn't reflected in the data.
Economic Survey:
The economic recovery is complete; non-banking and corporate sectors now have healthy balance sheets, hence, we don't have to speak of recovery from Covid-19anymore, we have to look ahead to the next phase, saidChief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran.
Economic Survey:
Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaransays,reforms of the last eight years mean India will perform better in this decade.These reforms span multiple dimensions - financial inclusion, banking, tax transparency, ease of doing business, and farmers' welfare.
Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran:
IMF has retained its GDP growth forecast for India for the current and next financial years. Their forecasts show an acceleration in India's GDP growth rate.
Economic Survey: Rumki Majumdar, Economist, Deloitte India says...
The government must address the supply bottlenecks to contain inflationary pressures and bring it back within its comfort range in a timely manner. Measures such as spending on infrastructure and logistics may go a long way in bringing down costs and improving competitiveness. More importantly, it will help India move up the value chain over the Amrit Kaal of the next 25 years:
Economic Survey 2023 LIVE Updates: CEA V Anantha Nageswaran arrives for press briefing
Economic Survey:
The number of recognised startups in the country has increased from 452 in 2016 to 84,012 in 2022. About 48 percent of our startups are from tier 2 & 3 cities
Economic Survey:
Why has industrial output disappointed? Survey points to constraints in the first half of FY23: high rainfall affecting output in certain sectors such as real estate and construction but rainfall also led to cooler weather and hurt power demand. Survey says manufacturing output hit by inventory build-up and also by uneven growth—for example, automobiles have done well (domestic-dependent) but textiles have not (export-dependent).
Economic Survey: Indian stock market more expensive compared to global peers
The Indian equity market isexpensive compared to its global peers, according to the Economic Survey 2022-23.“Nifty 50, with its valuation at 21.8 times the earnings of the constituent stocks (P/E ratio) on trailing basis at the end of December 2022, is expensive compared to global markets,” said the annual publication. (Read more)
Economic Survey LIVE: Startups exploring reverse-flipping, suggests tax regimes like Singapore, UAE
The Economic Survey 2023 has said startups are exploring "reverse-flipping", or shifting their domicile back to India, a month after it emerged that such a shift by fintech unicorn PhonePe cost its investors around Rs 8,000 crore.
The survey also suggested measures like simplification of employee stock option (ESOP) taxes, capital gains tax regimes like those of Singapore, UAE and the Netherlands, and capital flow procedures akin to geographies like the US and Singapore to accelerate reverse-flipping. (Read more)
Economic Survey shows, capex is revival on the cards
With well-capitalised banks ready and willing to lend and corporates financially stronger and willing to borrow, the credit-investment cycle is poised for an upturn in the third decade” Pandemic interrupted the investment cycle as deleveraging was completed by the end of 2018. Core debt of pvt sector as share of GDP down to 87.8 percent in June 2022 quarter, from 100.7 percent in March 2021 quarter
