Manas Chakravarty

BUSINESS

How has the structure of the Indian economy changed in the last 10 years?

The share of manufacturing has barely budged, despite the noise about the Make in India programme

BUSINESS

What were the drivers of GDP growth in Q4?

GDP growth in Q4, FY 24 has been very strong, but the laggards have been the agriculture sector and private consumption. The share of private consumption in GDP in the March 2024 quarter is the lowest since the March 2010 quarter

BUSINESS

S&P holds out a carrot for India, but with conditions

The rating agency says continued policy stability, deepening economic reforms, high infrastructure investment, high growth, along with cautious fiscal and monetary policy could lead to a higher rating over the next 24 months

BUSINESS

Decoding Economics: Do umpires play with a straight bat?

Did the temporary introduction of home umpires in international test matches during the pandemic lead to a bias in favour of home teams? A research paper from the IZA Institute of Labour Economics comes to some surprising conclusions

BUSINESS

Eleven-year high positive sentiment in May Flash PMI signals strong confidence about election outcome in Corporate India

The Flash Composite PMI for India came in at 61.7 for May, up from April’s final reading of 61.5, indicating strong growth momentum

BUSINESS

Decoding Economics: The economic basis of identity politics

Development is not a smooth process; it disrupts the old social milieu and creates new winners and losers. The losers and winners both then mobilise along lines of identity, one to try for a bigger share of the pie, the other to preserve their share of the newly baked pie

ELECTION

Go out and VOTE

The best method to make more people vote is one that I have been advocating for a long time, but vested interests inimical to India have always managed to scuttle it. Basically, we need to have a scheme allowing voters to bet on the candidates of their choice

BUSINESS

Decoding Economics: Who gains, who loses from building roads?

A World Bank paper that studied the impact of the Golden Quadrilateral on the growth of firms shows that while survival rates increase for all plants as a result of their proximity to the road network, it is the younger plants who fare better. Older plants, in contrast, stagnate or contract, because of the increased competition

BUSINESS

Food inflation rises in April, caution should be the watchword for monetary policy

There is no hurry to ease monetary policy when the economy is booming

BUSINESS

How the national economic pie was shared

The NSO data show that the share of the household sector in gross value added, gross savings and gross capital formation have all come down

BUSINESS

Decoding Economics: US Fed paper says inequality increases financial vulnerability

The researchers find that a 1 percent increase in the top 1 percent wealth share predicts a 1.038 percent increase in equity valuations Manas Chakravarty

BUSINESS

Is Warren Buffett right about the fiscal deficit and what effect will it have on the markets?

Investors seem to be betting that they will have the best of both worlds -- the markets will rally on stronger growth, but if growth disappoints, they will rally on rate cut hopes

BUSINESS

Decoding Economics | The impact of monetary policy on stock markets

An RBI research paper studies the impact on the Indian stock markets of policy rate changes and of central bank communication on the future path of monetary policy

BUSINESS

Decoding Economics | AI is a magic bullet to increase productivity, finds BIS research

Strapline: BIS researchers find that while output always increases, it can grow by up to twice as much for the same AI-induced increase in productivity when AI affects sectors producing consumption goods rather than investment goods

BUSINESS

The mixed message from the global flash PMIs

While the April Flash Composite PMI shows growth slowing in the US, it’s getting better in the Eurozone, Japan and the UK, while Indian growth is red-hot

BUSINESS

IMF forecasts India will become fourth-largest economy by 2025, third by 2027

India has improved its per capita GDP ranking from 153 in 2018 to 144 in 2023, going past the Republic of Congo, Ghana, Kenya, Cambodia and the Lao People’s Democratic Republic. By 2029, it is forecast to overtake Uzbekistan, Papua New Guinea and Angola

BUSINESS

What the IMF forecasts say about India’s economic growth

The forecasts show tepid growth in investment as well as exports in the next few years

BUSINESS

MPC minutes: The many reasons for not cutting rates

Spikes in food inflation and geopolitical and financial uncertainty are holding back the MPC from cutting the policy rate

BUSINESS

Decoding Economics | How will the Second Cold War skew trade and investment?

A set of non-aligned ‘connector’ countries is rapidly gaining importance and serving as a bridge between blocs. Exports from these non-aligned economies are substituting for declining Chinese imports by the US

BUSINESS

IIP numbers show long-term decline in capital goods production

The sub-index of capital goods production in February 2024 was not only lower than in February 2019, but 10.6 percent lower than its level in February 2018

POLITICS

The spectre of an Iran-Israel war is the latest reminder of rising geopolitical risks for investors

There is only one nation that can put an end to the fighting and that is the United States

BUSINESS

Decoding Economics | Corporate debt and boom-bust cycles

While the authors’ research is based on a global sample of 115 economies, its conclusions fit very well with the Indian experience where the rise in corporate debt led to a huge rise in bad loans and the subsequent clean-up slowed the economy and led to an investment drought

BUSINESS

Consumer confidence recovers before general election, boosting BJP’s prospects

The RBI’s consumer confidence survey for March 2024 shows sentiment improving, just as it did in March 2019, before the last general election