BUSINESS
Job growth in FY24 highest in more than 40 years
According to the KLEMS database, total employment in the Indian economy increased by as much as 46.7 million in 2023-24, up from 19.2 million in 2022-23. In 2020-21, during the depths of the pandemic, the database says 31.2 million jobs were added
BUSINESS
Decoding Economics: The power of narratives
An NBER research paper says narratives may be a significant cause of the business cycle
BUSINESS
Bank for International Settlements on what could go wrong for the global economy
BUSINESS
Falling prices of Chinese exports have helped inflation come down in India
The Bank for International Settlements says China’s export drive has acted as a global disinflationary force for importing countries, with India being among the biggest beneficiaries
BUSINESS
Budget Snapshot | Consumption push or investment-led growth?
The share of private consumption in GDP at constant prices in 2023-24 was the lowest since 2017-18—should the government therefore boost consumption in the Budget?
BUSINESS
Moneycontrol Pro Panorama | The RBI Governor’s gambit
In this edition of Moneycontrol Pro Panorama: RBI warns of headwinds for microfinance sector, US keen to revisit international trade rules, what's troubling central government's capex, Teesta treaty now a lost cause time for Bangladesh, and more
BUSINESS
Decoding Economics: Why the US wants to rewrite rules of international trade
An NBER working paper by economists Joseph Stiglitz and Martin Guzman analyses why neoliberal globalisation failed and why the US is embracing industrial policy
BUSINESS
Government survey of unincorporated enterprises provides further proof of rural distress
Not only are the predominantly informal workers paid a pittance, but the increase in rural wages for this category was a mere 0.55 percent over the period between April 2021—March 2022 and October 2022-September 2023
BUSINESS
RBI researchers predict higher growth, lower inflation than forecast by MPC for 2024-25
While the State of the Economy report is upbeat on the domestic economy, it finds plenty of warning signs about the US economy
BUSINESS
Decoding Economics: Where will the jobs come from?
A paper by well-known development economist Dani Rodrik and Nobel Laureate Joseph Stiglitz says that the changed global economy needs new strategies that focus on job growth in developing countries
BUSINESS
India’s goods exports are up, but they are only back to 2022 levels
Total exports in May 2022 were USD39 billion, compared to USD 38.1 billion in May 2024. The saving grace is that non-petroleum products exports are slightly higher
BUSINESS
IIP: What ails manufacturing in India?
Manufacturing growth has had a CAGR of just 2.67 percent in the six years to April 2024 and of 23 major industry groups, 10 have had a negative CAGR
BUSINESS
A tale of three inflations, with a twist at the end
Three major economies — US, China and India — reported inflation data. The overall conclusion is that emerging markets look attractive. But there's a fly in the ointment
BUSINESS
The depressing message from the Household Consumption survey
The top 5 percent in urban India spent 2.6 times more on cereals than the poorest 5 percent. And they spent one and a half times as much on cereals than those in the 40-50 percent fractile, which is Middle India. A similar gap exists in cereal consumption between the rich and poor in rural India. The point is: if they had the means, the poor would increase their intake of cereals, or consume a better quality of cereals
BUSINESS
Decoding Economics: India’s two hundred and fifty thousand democracies
Villages have seen the emergence of a new class of local political elites who are diverse and more representative of the underlying population than their higher-tiered counterparts
BUSINESS
RBI surveys indicate two economic reasons that may have worked against the BJP
The Consumer Confidence Survey’s Current Situation Index, which measures sentiment about current economic conditions, went down in May to 97.1 from a reading of 98.5 in March
LOK-SABHA-ELECTION
The return of political risk
For business and the markets, the election results are a big blow. But the good news from the poll verdict is the strengthening of Indian democracy
BUSINESS
Urban unemployment edges up in Jan-Mar 2024, but is well below pre-pandemic levels
India has improved its female labour force participation rate, but we still lag Bangladesh
BUSINESS
Some central ministries spent only a fraction of their budgets in FY24
The Ministry of Minority Affairs, as per the CGA figures, has spent a mere 6 percent of the amount shown in the revised estimate for 2023-24
BUSINESS
How has the structure of the Indian economy changed in the last 10 years?
The share of manufacturing has barely budged, despite the noise about the Make in India programme
BUSINESS
What were the drivers of GDP growth in Q4?
GDP growth in Q4, FY 24 has been very strong, but the laggards have been the agriculture sector and private consumption. The share of private consumption in GDP in the March 2024 quarter is the lowest since the March 2010 quarter
BUSINESS
S&P holds out a carrot for India, but with conditions
The rating agency says continued policy stability, deepening economic reforms, high infrastructure investment, high growth, along with cautious fiscal and monetary policy could lead to a higher rating over the next 24 months
BUSINESS
Decoding Economics: Do umpires play with a straight bat?
Did the temporary introduction of home umpires in international test matches during the pandemic lead to a bias in favour of home teams? A research paper from the IZA Institute of Labour Economics comes to some surprising conclusions
BUSINESS
Eleven-year high positive sentiment in May Flash PMI signals strong confidence about election outcome in Corporate India
The Flash Composite PMI for India came in at 61.7 for May, up from April’s final reading of 61.5, indicating strong growth momentum
