Why voters disapprove of Trump but the 2026 midterms are still a toss-up

On eight major topics — the economy, immigration, tariffs, managing the federal government, crime, and conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine — most respondents give Trump negative marks. Disapproval is narrowest on Israel–Gaza, where 52% disapprove. On the economy, 37% approve and 62% disapprove; 52% say conditions have worsened since Jan. 20, while 27% say they have improved. A majority blames Trump for the current pace of inflation to at least some degree.

The tariff divide

Tariffs remain unpopular. Thirty-three percent approve and 65% disapprove of the wide-ranging measures, unchanged since spring when the policy push began. Concerns focus on consumer prices and business costs, even as the White House frames tariffs as leverage to reset trade.

Immigration and enforcement

Immigration remains contentious and closely divided. Overall, 43% approve and 56% disapprove of Trump’s handling of the issue. Views split on deportation raids and ICE operations: nationally, support and opposition are near parity, but respondents tend to oppose raids “in the area where you live.” Majorities oppose allowing ICE and Homeland Security personnel to wear masks on duty and say the president should not be able to deploy the National Guard into a state over that governor’s objection.

Crime perceptions

Roughly six in ten describe crime in big cities as extremely or very serious, while 49% say the same about the country overall. Perceptions are calmer locally: only 18% call crime extremely or very serious where they live. Republicans are far more likely than Democrats to see crime as a major national problem, underscoring a partisan gap on public safety narratives.

Foreign policy snapshots

Trump’s role in the return of Hamas-held Israeli hostages improved his standing modestly: 46% now approve of his handling of that issue, up from 39% before the deal. On Ukraine, however, 39% approve and 60% disapprove of his approach, and by 46% to 8% Americans say he has been too supportive of Russia rather than too supportive of Ukraine. Overall, more say U.S. global leadership has weakened (48%) than strengthened (33%) during his second term.

Parties and the midterm math

The poll highlights a central Democratic challenge: negative views of Trump have not translated into a decisive advantage. Among those who approve of Trump, about nine in ten intend to vote Republican for Congress; among those who disapprove, only about eight in ten prefer Democrats. Voters who “disapprove somewhat” of Trump split roughly evenly between the parties, while “approve somewhat” voters lean strongly Republican. Democrats also face softness among independents, moderates, conservatives and younger voters who dislike Trump but are not fully aligned with Democratic candidates.

Out of touch, across the board

Large majorities view Trump (63%), Republicans (61%) and Democrats (68%) as out of touch with their lives, with Democrats faring worst on this measure and showing no improvement since April. That sentiment, paired with redistricting still reshaping the House map, helps explain why the national environment remains competitive despite a high presidential disapproval rating.

What to watch next

History suggests midterms can punish the party in the White House, but this landscape is being redrawn in real time. If inflation perceptions ease or economic sentiment improves, Republicans could consolidate their turnout edge among Trump approvers. If Democrats convert broad policy disapproval into clearer local choices — particularly among “somewhat disapprove” voters — the narrow gap could widen. For now, the race to 2026 remains a turnout and persuasion grind rather than a wave.