Iran is negotiating and preparing for conflict at the same time. Indirect talks with the United States in Geneva ended this week without a breakthrough. Iranian officials spoke cautiously of “guiding principles”.
Washington’s message was blunter. The Iranians, US leaders said, have not accepted the red lines laid down by President Donald Trump.
Behind the scenes, US military commanders have reportedly told the White House that forces in the region could be ready to strike within days. Iran appears to have taken that threat seriously. Its recent actions suggest it is no longer treating war as a negotiating tactic, but as a scenario that needs to be actively managed, CNN reported.
Rebuilding missile capacity, not just repairing damage
Last year’s Israeli strikes hit Iran’s missile production sites and air bases hard. Tehran’s response has been methodical. Satellite imagery now shows that key facilities are not just patched up but reorganised to be more resilient.
At the Imam Ali missile base near Khorramabad, buildings destroyed in the attack have been rebuilt, damaged structures repaired, and new construction is underway near ballistic missile silos. At air bases in Tabriz and Hamadan, bomb craters have been filled, runways restored, and aircraft shelters repaired.
The most telling work has taken place at Shahrud, Iran’s main solid-propellant missile facility. Solid fuel allows missiles to be launched quickly, with less preparation time. Analysts tracking the site say repairs were completed unusually fast and that a production line untouched during the war may now be operational. The result, counterintuitively, may be greater output than before the strikes.
Making nuclear sites harder to kill
Iran is also assuming that any future attack will focus on its nuclear programme. New satellite images show an aggressive effort to bury, shield, and disguise sensitive facilities.
Near Natanz, tunnel entrances carved into Pickaxe Mountain are being reinforced with fresh concrete and earth, making them harder to penetrate from the air. At the Parchin military complex, a facility known as Taleghan 2 has been encased in concrete and covered with soil, effectively disappearing into the landscape.
Sites near Isfahan linked to centrifuge manufacturing have also been rebuilt after earlier
damage. The aim is straightforward. Iran wants to ensure that even sustained airstrikes cannot easily cripple the core of its nuclear capability.
Rewriting the rules of wartime leadership
The conflict with Israel exposed another vulnerability: decision-making under fire. During the fighting, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was reportedly difficult to reach, forcing authority to devolve down the chain.
Tehran has moved to fix that. Power has been concentrated in a strengthened Supreme National Security Council and a newly created Defence Council meant to operate during war. Veteran commander Ali Shamkhani, who survived an Israeli assassination attempt, has been brought back into a central role.
Analysts see this as preparation for worst-case scenarios, including the possibility of US strikes aimed at senior leadership. Iran is trying to ensure that command does not collapse if key figures are taken out.
Crushing dissent before it can spread
Iran’s military preparations are mirrored by a hard internal turn. Authorities have intensified a crackdown on dissent, especially after last month’s protests were met with lethal force. Thousands were reportedly killed, with the regime framing demonstrators as foreign-backed saboteurs.
Reformist figures have been detained, paramilitary forces deployed, and public space tightly controlled. The logic is brutal but clear. War increases the risk of unrest. Tehran is trying to remove that risk in advance.
Turning the Strait of Hormuz into a warning sign
Iran is also reminding the world that a conflict would not stay confined to Iranian territory. Naval drills in the Persian Gulf have included temporary closures of parts of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of global oil supply passes. Joint exercises with Russia in nearby waters have reinforced the signal.
US forces have responded by shooting down Iranian drones and deterring aggressive manouevres by Iranian boats. Each encounter raises the stakes and shortens reaction time.
A calculated message to Washington
Taken together, Iran’s actions point to a single calculation. If the United States strikes, it will not be hitting a paralysed state. It will be hitting a system that has dispersed assets, buried infrastructure, tightened internal control, and prepared to impose costs well beyond the battlefield.
Tehran’s message is not that it wants war. It is that if war comes, it intends to survive it, absorb damage, and make sure the consequences are felt far beyond Iran’s borders.
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