The pan-India release Adipurush starring south superstar Prabhas is expected to offset the impact of weak business of Hindi films in the June quarter, the business of which is estimated to be down by 20 percent in Q1 FY24. The film's Hindi version is expected to open at Rs 20 crore and do a total business of Rs 150 crore.
"If Adipurush's Hindi business is excluded from the math then decline in Hindi box office revenue in Q1 FY24 would have been 40 percent plus versus pre-Covid level. Including the film's Rs 150 crore, the decline is 20 percent versus pre-Covid," said Karan Taurani of Elara Capital.
Revenue of Hindi films that is one of the biggest contributors to India box office business remains under pressure as small and medium budget films struggle in theatres and frequency of content becoming successful has dropped sharply in the North and South circuits due to changing content consumption taste in the post-Covid phase.
Analysts note that Q1 FY24 has been a weak quarter to date as no films have done well in terms of box office except for The Kerala Story and there has been some respite from select Hollywood movies such as Fast X. Occupancies in June quarter are expected to be lower at 24 percent versus pre-Covid level of 32 percent, due to content not doing well.
The financials
"Performance of this film (Adipurush) will be critical for PVR-Inox’s fortunes in Q1 FY24. So far, four movies have crossed the net box office collection (NBOC) barrier of Rs 100 crore in Q1 FY24 and if Adipurush is able to net upwards of Rs 500 crore, we believe PVR-Inox will report a better performance than Q4 FY23," said Jinesh Joshi, Research Analyst, Prabhudas Lilladher.
At 12:24 pm, PVR-Inox shares traded at Rs 1,486, down 0.9 percent from previous close.
He expects Q1 FY24 to perform better than Q4 FY23 as Ajay Devgn-starrer Bholaa's revenue will spillover to the June quarter; the film released on March 30 and earned Rs 80 crore. "There are quite a few movies like Zara Hatke Zara Bachke that collected Rs 61 crore, Guardians of the Galaxy Rs 49.4 crore, Virupaksha Rs 64 crore, and Transformers-Rise of the Beast Rs 31. 2 crore that have done well aiding collections for the quarter."
PVR-Inox had reported a net consolidated loss of Rs 333.37 crore for the quarter ended March, widening from the loss of Rs 107.41 crore last year.
Adipurush, which is estimated to be made on a budget of Rs 500-700 crore, has seen one of the best advance bookings with one of the highest number of tickets sold in advances at around 3 lakh in national multiplex chains for its Hindi version. Multiplex chain PVR Inox reported on June 15 that six lakh tickets have been booked in their theatres for all versions.
“It’s been a strong start for the Om Raut directorial Adipurush, based on Ramayana with advance sales for the film already crossing 1.5 million tickets on BookMyShow, said the company's COO - Cinemas, Ashish Saksena.
He added that while the Telugu version is leading the charts on the platform in terms of ticket sales, Hindi is a close second. The pan-India craze for the film includes not just metros but also tier 2 towns and beyond. In fact, the 3D format is the most preferred format of watching the film on the big screen with over 72 percent of movie-goers opting for the immersive movie watching experience.”
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