Eid may not bring cheer to struggling cinemas, elections may create further dent

He said Eid has been a blockbuster holiday for theatres from 2009 right up to last year, when Kisi Ka Bhai Kisi Ki Jaan opened to Rs 15-16 crore collections and went on to make Rs 30 crore on Eid despite weak content.

"The film was the greatest exhibition of stardom because there was no other reason to watch that film except it being a Salman Khan movie. For the two new releases, the opening day expectation is Rs 15 crore for Bade Miyan Chote Miyan and Rs 10 crore for Maidaan," he said.

There is a need for films to pick up pace in terms of collections from the first quarter of FY25 after a dull Q4 in FY24, said Girish Johar, a producer and film trade expert.

"I hope theatres start Q1 with a bang and both the Eid releases fire up the box office. We need to pick up in the coming quarters," Johar said.

However, a subdued Eid weekend - going by the low expectations for the two films to be released - is only expected to add to the woes of cinemas and impact their Q1 performance. The regional and English film box office will also be muted in this quarter due to the negative impact of elections and last year's Hollywood writers' strike, said Karan Taurani, senior vice president at Elara Capital.

He estimated that Hindi film box office collections will decline 5 percent year-on-year in Q1.

Election impact

"The unusual thing for the film business this year is elections, creating a lot of noise. Down south and in the Hindi market, there are no critical films which will be released during the poll dates," said Johar. "There is talk that Telugu language venture Kalki 2898 AD starring Prabhas, Deepika Padukone, and Amitabh Bachchan is likely to be released after the elections. Many filmmakers have planned releases to avoid clashing with poll dates."

The pipeline for Q1 is not exciting and if Kalki 2898 AD gets postponed, then overall box office collections for the next quarter can get severely impacted, said Jinesh Joshi, a research analyst at Prabhudas Lilladher.

Other southern film releases including Thangalaan and Raayan have been postponed to avoid clashing with the political campaigns.

While there is usually strong traction for films released in the summer holiday months of April and May, this time, the shine seems to have been taken away by the parliamentary elections scheduled in phases across the country from April 19 to June 4.

Slow start

Both multiplexes and single-screen theatres recorded a subdued performance in the last quarter of FY24.

"There has been a dip in admissions and collections in the last quarter. 2023 was an exceptionally good year for the cinema industry. As compared to that, the last three months have seen a dip. But with Eid and the upcoming line up, we expect it to be an uphill climb," said Rahul Puri, managing director of Mukta A2 Cinemas, a theatre chain by film production company Mukta Arts.

PVR Inox will report a weak performance in Q4 due to poor box office collections, according to analysts.

During January to March 2024, India's box office collections have declined by 6 to 8 percent from the same period in 2023, said Sanket Kulkarni, head of business development (theatrical) at Ormax Media.

According to Johar, there has been a 20 percent drop in Hindi film box office collections in Q4 from a year earlier - from Rs 1,000 crore business last year to about Rs 800 crore this year.

"Fighter saw a mild response versus Pathaan last year same time. Luckily, we had Article 370 and Shaitaan. Other films have been below par. I hope for a respite because if every quarter there is a gap, then it boils down to the biggies in the second half of the year," said Johar.