Recent reports that the Indian ambassador in Baku Sridharan Madhusudhanan was hauled up by the host country and admonished for weapons transfers to Armenia via Iran is both surprising and not surprising. Surprising because Azerbaijan has been on quite a shopping spree for arms, primarily from Turkey and also Israel, in recent times but wants to deny the same right to its neighbour Armenia, a sovereign state.
These transfers, the Head of the Foreign Policy Department of the Presidential Administration Hikmet Hajiyev warned Ambassador Madhusudhanan, would “escalate the situation” as it would “militarise” Armenia and be detrimental to sustainable peace between the two South Caucasian nations.
But that was exactly what Azerbaijan did with the arms it purchased from its pals – it “militarised” Azerbaijan, turned the frozen conflict into a hot one, and wrested the contested territory of Nagorno-Karabakh from Armenian control. It is understandable that negotiating from a position of strength is in Azerbaijan’s interest.
Why India Mustn’t Flinch
On the other hand, Indian arms to Armenia have not been used in the conflict, and hence, allegations of escalation are untrue. Since there is no international arms embargo on Armenia it has as much right to import arms as much as India has the right to export them.
In fact, India’s policy in the South Caucasus is a sound one, though it got a bit of a late start. In a column in these pages some years ago, this author had written how close ties with Armenia would be beneficial for India. The small landlocked state situated in the South Caucasus occupies a strategic geo-political location, sandwiched as it is between Russia, Turkey, Iran and Azerbaijan.
Bilateral relations have a natural edge given the centuries’ long history of interaction between our two peoples. At least since the 16th century AD, there is documented history of Armenians in India; undocumented history stretches back further in time. Soon after the disintegration of the USSR, India recognised and established diplomatic relations with Armenia and ties have only become closer since.
Azerbaijan’s Pakistan Slant
This, however, did not impede ties with Armenia’s neighbour and rival Azerbaijan. India extended recognition to the latter at the same time but it was Azerbaijan that took an indifferent stance, and now even inimical, while simultaneously deepening ties with Pakistan, facilitated by Turkey. For instance, there has been no high-profile official bilateral visit between the two sides.
Furthermore, while Armenia has always supported the Indian position on Kashmir, India has remained neutral on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Azerbaijan, however, has been supporting Pakistan’s position on Kashmir, allowing “Kashmir Day” events to take place in Baku; more recently last week it allowed an event by the Pakistani embassy there condemning India’s scrapping of Article 370, which gave Kashmir special status.
The support has not stopped there.
While Pakistan firmly supported Azerbaijan in its war with Armenia last year, with reports of Pakistani fighters joining the war on the Azeri side, it is well established that Azerbaijan won the 2020 war – its first military victory against Armenia – mostly on the military support provided by Turkey.
Turkey’s belligerence against India and its president Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s strident anti-India stand on Kashmir, including in the UN, are well known. Following the Karabakh war, which has imbued fresh optimism in both Ankara and Baku, defence relations between Azerbaijan and Pakistan have also increased.
Soon after the war, in a tripartite meeting in Islamabad in January 2021 of the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan, Turkey, and Pakistan, the three states adopted the “Islamabad Declaration”, which said that Azerbaijan, Turkey and Pakistan back each other’s position on Kashmir, Cyprus and Nagorno-Karabakh.
Synergies With Armenia
Such statements find no parallels in relations between India and Armenia. The Islamabad meeting was followed up by a two-week-long military drill between the three countries – “Three Brothers – 2021” in Baku.
Against this backdrop India’s defence collaboration with Armenia is but natural. Just as the Karabakh war catapulted Turkish drones’ sales in the region, Armenia can become the launch-pad for India’s transformation from a weapons’ importer to a weapons’ exporter.
The known weapons’ sales to Armenia till now include SWATHI weapon locating radars developed by the DRDO, and indigenously manufactured Pinaka rocket launchers and anti-tank rockets.
It also gives India a valuable foothold in a geo-politically strategic region. With Russia – Armenia’s closest economic and military ally – distracted by Ukraine, India may have a bigger role to play there. It is entirely up to Azerbaijan to improve relations with India.
Aditi Bhaduri is a journalist and political analyst. Views are personal, and do not represent the stand of this publication.
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