In less than a month from now, India is set to witness what many have termed as the biggest battle for a state in recent times. The elections in Maharashtra, like any other large state, are special in more ways than one – it traverses beyond the post-2014 BJP-Congress national binary into India’s realpolitik.
But the upcoming elections in Maharashtra, which has seen its fair share of political ups and downs in the last five years, are unlike any other. Multiple stakeholders, shifting loyalties, a Lok Sabha upset – for an avid political watcher, Maharashtra has all the makings of a blockbuster.
Beyond the tug-of-war between regional players, there are larger national ramifications at stake. Locked in another direct contest with the Congress, the BJP is desperate to shrug off its below-par performance in the Lok Sabha elections and retain government in the politically crucial state.
While seat-sharing with allies is one factor that will have a bearing on the Mahayuti’s poll performance, the BJP appears to be banking on its strategy in Haryana, where it defied odds to form a government for the third successive term, to work its magic in Maharashtra.
The Haryana Model
The BJP's unlikely victory in Haryana is largely credited to its success in using the Jat anger against it to its advantage. The consolidation of non-Jat OBC and Dalit votes proved decisive in ensuring the BJP's victory in the state. While the Congress' over-reliance on the Jat factor without being able to mobilise them was partly responsible for its defeat, the BJP is credited with effectively convincing the larger OBC, Dalit and upper caste voters to vote in its favour.
Be it raising the limit of the OBC creamy layer from Rs 6 lakh to Rs 8 lakh or providing 8 percent reservation for OBCs in local body elections to retaining Nayab Saini as its CM face, the BJP managed to get several communities into its fold while the Congress focussed on just the Jat and Dalit votes that comprise around 21 percent of the population share.
Non-Maratha Factor
While Maharashtra is a different state, and there are multiple factors at play here, the BJP happens to be focussed on a counter consolidation similar to what it did in Haryana. Just like the Jats in Haryana, there has been considerable anger against the ruling BJP among the dominant Maratha community in Maharashtra.
For the past two years, Marathas, who constitute around 21 percent of the state’s population (as per the Maharashtra State Backward Class Commission report), have been demanding their inclusion in the OBC category which will make them eligible for reservations in admissions to government institutions and government jobs. The BJP’s actions so far have been viewed as lip service, and there are indications that the quota agitation by activist Jarange Patil will damage the Mahayuti more than the Maha Vikas Aghadi.
The protests by OBCs against the proposal to include Marathas is something that the BJP hopes will draw a majority from the community into its fold. The OBCs, who constitute around 44 percent of the population, are fragmented into various sub-groups – Kumbis (14.5%), Malis (7%) Vanjaris (6%), Dhangars (5%) and other OBC groups (11.83%).
BJP’s Gameplan
Much like Haryana, the BJP is hoping to make the counter consolidation against Marathas work. BJP representatives from various OBC sub-groups have been asked to reach out to their respective communities with the BJP's message.
Each sub-group is represented by a big face -- the Munde sisters represent the Vanjaris and Chhagan Bhujbal represents the Malis. Besides, the party has also deputed campaigners to eat into the community groups that the MVA counts as its traditional vote -- the Muslims (11.5%), Marathas (20%), Dalits (12.79%) and Tribals (6.53% ).
The party has also promised that it will repeat its Haryana move to legislate a sub-quota within the Dalit quota in Maharashtra as well.
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