Podcast | Karnataka Polls 2018: Here's what the exit polls say

Let us break down the results of exit polls. Wait; let’s first look at what exit polls are and how useful they are.

The definition on Wikipedia reads, “An election exit poll is a poll of voters taken immediately after they have exited the polling stations. Unlike an opinion poll, which asks for whom the voter plans to vote, or some similar formulation, an exit poll asks for whom the voter actually voted.”

A poll like this done before voters have voted is called an entrance poll.

Now, one doesn’t require an advanced degree in behavioural science to deduce that there is no rational reason to believe this response from a voter. Unless it’s a passionate, politically involved voter, most likely the voter would like to be left alone. And has no reason to not give you a random reply. Exit polls failed most famously in the Donald Trump election. Many voters simply lied to avoid being hectored by the media and their own liberal friends. It was one of the more anti-climactic moments in political history when the landslide for Hillary Clinton predicted by exit polls simply failed to materialize. That was the biggest lesson to not take exit polls too seriously.

Some countries, like the UK and Germany, have made it a criminal offence to release exit poll figures before all polling stations are closed, while Singapore has banned them entirely during election time. During our own 2014 general election, the Election Commission  did not permit exit polls to be published until 630pm on May 12, after voting had ended. The fear is that exit polls can feign predictions of a result that could dissuade actual voters from stepping out to vote. In fact, Section 126A of the Representation of the People’s Act, 1951, puts a ban on exit polls from the period between the commencement of the poll until half an hour after the closing of the final phase of the poll.

The Karnataka election exit poll situation is another cautionary tale to not be too invested in exit polls.

What do I mean? Here is the lowdown on the exit polls.

One set of pollsters released their exit polls, by various news organisations and survey agencies. The results, according to them read as follows: A hung assembly is very likely, with many predicting that the Bharatiya Janata Party might emerge as the single-largest party.

Some other organisations suggest that the Congress party could become the single-largest party in what will be a closely fought election.

These exit polls were announced after voting concluded in the state. Some sources claimed the final voter turnout was 70 percent, marginally lower than 71.4 percent recorded in the 2013 Assembly polls. Other sources claim that voter turnout is closer to 73%.  With a 72.13% turnout, this election is the highest since the 1952 state election, Chief Electoral Officer Sanjeev Kumar said.

Now that we have some idea of the parameters and the environment these polls operate in, how about we take a look at the various poll results? Counting day is on the 15th, so we will know soon enough which of these clairvoyants we can keep an eye out for henceforth.

First up, the poll by one of the most popular English news channels – the Times Now-VMR poll.

The exit poll by Times Now-VMR indicates a hung assembly with the Congress emerging as the single-largest party with 90-103 seats while the BJP is expected to win 80-93 seats. The Janata Dal is likely to play the, yes, ’kingmaker’ with 31-39 seats.

In terms of vote share, the Times Now-VMR poll has the Congress leading with 38.4 percent vote share. The BJP, it claims, will finish second with 34.6 percent. The HD Kumaraswamy-led JD(S) is looking at a 19.8 percent vote share. Other candidates, the independents, are likely to have a 7.2 percent vote share.

Then there is the poll by Arnab Goswami’s Republic TV. The Republic TV-Jan Ki Baat survey has the BJP as the single-largest party with 95-114 seats while the Congress party will have to settle for 73-82 seats. The JD(S) will bag 32-43 seats, the poll has revealed. Kingmaker JD-S again.

The biggest Hindi tv news channel, ABP’s poll with CSDS, claims the BJP will emerge the largest party, winning between  97 and 109 seats, but short of the halfway 112 mark.  It predicts that the Congress will win between 87 & 99 seats.

The India Today-Axis My India poll showed a median forecast of 112 seats for Congress, just enough to cross the halfway mark. On the other hand, News X predicted 102-110, 72-78 and 35-39 seats for the BJP, Congress and JDS, respectively.

Besides all the confusion in the exit polls, we should bear in mind that three locations are yet to vote. The Election Commission postponed voting for Bengaluru’s Rajarajeswari Nagar constituency to May 28 pending enquiry into a voter ID row. Around 10,000 voter identity cards were recovered from a flat in the constituency, leading to a blame game between the BJP and the Congress.

The counting for this constituency will happen on May 31. The EC said that there was "definite inference" to suggest that efforts were made to induce voters. It also cancelled polling in the Jayanagar constituency following the death of BJP candidate VN Vijay Kumar. The Chief Electoral Officer announced re-election in Lottegollahalli in Hebbal assembly segment due to a faulty ballot unit.

The real point of interest is that Karnataka is the last big state with a Congress party government. A loss here will leave the Congress with just Punjab, Mizoram and Puducherry, which is a union territory. Should this come to pass, we’re looking at the end of an era in Indian politics. Like a Tectonic shift. The Grand Old Party of India will no longer be perceived as invincible but as just another contender. This is the reason some are labelling this election the semi-final leading up to the finals, i.e. the general election in 2019.

What implications do these results have on the final outcome – the new government? Assuming no party earns a simple majority, the next government will depend largely on which party lands close to the halfway mark. In 2008, the BJP, with 110 seats, three short of a majority, poached MLAs from the Congress. In such a scenario, which is never ruled out, the JD (S) will have no role to play.

On the other hand, if either national party is within shouting distance of 113, the Janata Dal will find itself in great demand. This is where exit polls again make their presence felt, though one would expect it would to a lesser extent - alliances between candidates and political parties.

What impact does this situation have on business? Well, the lack of consensus among exit polls is making the stock market a tiny bit anxious.  Ahead of the election result, the Nifty managed to close above 10,800 levels for the fourth consecutive day in a row. But any disappointment at current levels could result in a kneejerk response in the markets, which could push the Nifty50 closer to 10,600 or even lower.

“Based on the exit polls, the indecisiveness in the market should remain till the results and this should be reflected with a VIX (volatility index) in the range of 13%-15%. The market should open marginally positive on Monday and the overall positive trend is still expected to stay intact,” Shubham Agarwal, CEO  & Head of Research at Quantsapp Private Limited told Moneycontrol on Sunday.

The Nifty50 saw a breakout above 10,785 on Friday that has opened room for further upside until 10,900. However, should the BJP fail to attain a clear majority in Karnataka, analysts say a slip to 10,680 is possible.

To sum things up, as major news outlets have reported, five out of eight major exit polls claimed that the BJP will emerge as the single largest party while two polls have predicted a Congress majority. Most of the exit polls claim a hung assembly with the Janata Dal quickly turning into the object of the BJUP’s and Congress’ affections.

The last word on exit polls belonged to CM Siddaramaiah. He tweeted, “

Exit opinion polls are entertainment for the next 2 days. Relying on poll of polls is like a person who can’t swim crossing a river on foot relying on a statistician who told him the average depth of the river is 4 feet. Please note average of 6+4+2 is 4. At 6 feet you drown!
So, Dear party workers, supporters & well-wishers, don’t worry about exit polls. Relax & enjoy your weekend. We are coming back.

Essentially, worrying won’t change the result. So, relax and wait for the results on the 15^th. And keep your sense of humour handy. There are few sights funnier than all-knowing media mavens coming face to face with their exit polls going wrong live on TV.