Various factors that may have increased the spread of the disease include the resumption of local trains for the general public, easing of lockdown restrictions and large congregations such as the farmers' protest.
The resumption of local train services for the general public may explain the spike in number of positive cases in the Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR), but what could explain Vidharba region’s health crisis?
The rise comes at a time when two new variants of the virus have been found in samples in the state’s Vidarbha region. Dr. Jacob John, one of India’s leading virologist, told Moneycontrol that two factors may explain the sudden spike.
The first being people lowering their guard by flouting social-distancing norms in public places and being reluctant to use masks. Even last year, health experts pointed out the lack of “COVID-appropriate behaviour” among people as a reason for increasing transmission rates.
The other factor may be the mutant variants of the virus being discovered in the region. “These could be more transmissible than the mother virus,” said Dr. John.
Thousands of COVID-19 mutations have been detected across the globe since the outbreak of the pandemic last year. Some variants are more infectious than others, such as the one in UK that triggered a second lockdown in Britain over the past few months.
File image: People scramble to board a bus amid the spread of COVID-19 in Mumbai, India on February 25, 2021. (Image: Reuters/Francis Mascarenhas)
So far, Indian researchers have identified 7,684 variants in SARS-CoV-2 (novel coronavirus) genomes from samples collected within the country, reported Business Today.
Dr. Rakesh Mishra, Director of the Centre for Cellular and Molecular Biology (CCMB), said during a recent press conference that the N440K variant is spreading a lot more in the southern states. Researchers in Maharashtra detected this variant in one sample from Yavatmal. It was also found in Andhra Pradesh and parts of north India in December 2020.
He said India needs to step up genome sequencing to stay on top of changes in the virus' structure and to develop the appropriate strategy for treatment and prevention.
India has so far not been using its full capacity for sequencing, having deposited only about 6,400 genomes of the over 10.4 million recorded cases (0.06 percent).
Since February 15, thousands of COVID-19 cases have been reported in Amravati and Yavatmal districts. The state government had imposed a 10-day lockdown in Yavatmal last month and announced a strict week-long lockdown in Amravati too.
On February 18, The Indian Express reported that during genome sequencing of COVID-19 infected blood samples, researchers found the “E484K” mutation of the virus in four samples from Amravati.
Since this mutation has been found in the new, fast-spreading COVID strains in the United Kingdom, South Africa and Brazil, district officials have been concerned that the variant could transmit quickly across Maharashtra and the country.
The research paper 'SARS-CoV-2 genomics: An Indian perspective on sequencing viral variants' by the scientists of CCMB says some of the recently identified spike mutations that are of concern include the N439K, N440K, Q493K and E484K, as they are prone to immune escape.
The paper says the N440K variant has been found in 42 percent of the samples from Andhra Pradesh and E484K in three samples from Maharashtra.
However, the state government denied the detection of any mutations of the virus similar to the ones found in the UK, Brazil or South Africa.
But recently, according to a report by The Quint, Dr. Randeep Guleria, chief of the All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS) in New Delhi, warned that the new strain found in Amravati is “highly transmissible and dangerous”, and could cause re-infections among people who have already had COVID-19.
File image: Volunteers distribute pamphlets during an awareness campaign on the spread of COVID-19 on a street in Mumbai, India on February 22, 2021. (Image: Reuters/Niharika Kulkarni)
