Four days have passed since the BJP-led Mahayuti secured a thumping majority in the assembly elections but the new government is yet to be formed. The impasse revolves around the question of who will be the next Chief Minister of Maharashtra. While the Shiv Sena, led by Eknath Shinde, is adamant about retaining the CM post, the BJP, having emerged as the single largest party, is unwilling to forfeit it. Here are three possible scenarios in which the BJP could install its CM:
1. Scenario 1: Extra berths for Shinde
The BJP could retain the CM seat while appointing two Deputy CMs from the Shiv Sena and NCP. The BJP might offer an extra berth to the Shinde faction in the Union Cabinet and allocate a few additional ministries in the state cabinet in exchange.
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2. Scenario 2: Sharing of the CM's post
The BJP could agree to share the CM's position with Eknath Shinde for half of the tenure. However, this arrangement could be problematic, as the Ajit Pawar-led NCP might also demand a share of the CM's tenure. Ajit Pawar’s ambition to become CM is well-known.
3. Scenario 3: BJP government without Shiv Sena
This is the least likely scenario. With 132 seats and the support of 5 independents or smaller parties, the BJP has a total of 137 seats, just 8 short of the majority mark of 145 in the 288-member assembly. In this case, the BJP would require support from only one of its two alliance partners to form the government. If the Shiv Sena is excluded, the government could still be formed with the support of the NCP, which has 41 MLAs. Notably, the NCP has already expressed support for the BJP’s claim to the CM’s position.
However, the BJP is unlikely to pursue this option, as it could bolster the Shiv Sena (UBT)’s narrative that the BJP "uses and throws" its regional alliance partners.
In a way, the current stalemate is reminiscent of the post-2019 election scenario when the Shiv Sena-BJP alliance won a majority but faced a month-long deadlock over the Chief Ministership.
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