In an interview to CNBC-TV18, Prakash Diwan of Altamount Capital Management shared his readings and outlook on specific stocks and sectors.
Below is the verbatim transcript of Prakash Diwan's interview to Latha Venkatesh, & Anuj Singhal.
Anuj: Reliance Industries has been the market leader for the last three or four days now. At what price would it be a buy again because the rally has been too strong and a lot of people are thinking that they have missed out?
A: That feeling of being missed out has been also manifest in the domestic institutional investors' (DII) behaviour and not just retail investors, so that is the prime reason why post that announcement on Reliance Jio things have been pretty different.
However, the first round of buying where people already had conviction, were sitting on the fence but wanted to buy and were waiting for that trigger and have done it. Now the next round of buying in that same quantum is only likely to come once Reliance Industries start firing on some of the other cylinders as well. So petrochemicals is doing fairly okay, refining seems to be in a good spot, so I believe quarterly numbers will probably be the next trigger and that will also get closer to the monetisation process being started. So I would anticipate buying sometime in April.
What levels to look at? If you feel you have missed out, you could get a chance of about 4-5 percent from here lower, not something significant because there are not going to be many sellers coming in. You might not see incremental buying in a hurry but I do not see any selloff which will bring the stock price down. You probably will have to wait for a bad day but otherwise from longer term perspective it is definitely worth a rerating. We had mentioned 8-10 percent of rerating and that surprised us pleasantly but still some more way to go.Latha: What about Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC), Hindustan Petroleum Corporation (HPCL) merger, if it happens?
A: I guess the way the finance ministry is blessing this whole potential marriage, it should happen that the oil ministry still might have reservations and these are large corporations with a lot of other ramifications in terms of people, inclination of the top management to do this. There is a strong case for a scaled up oil behemoth of sorts because that is where efficiencies coming in and if India were to rely on gas much more than crude eventually going forward to meet its energy requirements, the economies of scale are not at all there yet in gas. We have traditionally been a pure crude consumer and ONGC's strength in that area will definitely come in handy but if you ask me to buy any of these HPCLs, ONGCs, I would say no because till the contours are out - and they could go through a spiral of time correction which could be fairly long, they could stop getting up rated instead of that.
If I have to look at the story and potentially buy something that it's going to be Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) because that is the most conducively placed business model with the balance of refining and marketing and the kind of refining that is there - that makes sense for some cohesion but ONGC, HPCL not at all.Anuj: What is next for stocks like Bharti Airtel and Idea Cellular?
A: Idea has run its course in terms of good news but Bharti could continue fighting back, making strong moves and the next big trigger for Bharti by virtue of not doing anything but waiting for Reliance Jio to see how the monetisation process starts. So this has been announced and potentially we are all talking about 10 crore number to move to 12-13 by the end of March 31 and then a percentile of that will stick around. If that is weak, Bharti gets a leg up. If that is beyond 25-30 percent then it is definitely negative for Bharti. I believe Bharti will be traders' delight for the next two months wonderfully. It will give swings on both sides. In every series you could see 10 percent either ways and that is going to keep the action. So it is not for the fainthearted investors but I would recommend getting into it. When we are saying Reliance Jio is strong, I would buy Reliance as things get more and more clear but Idea is a touch-me-not even now but Bharti - maybe I will trade on it once in a while but not invest.
For entire interview, watch accompanying videos.
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