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With assigning underperform rating on Lupin and target price of Rs 1,350, Credit Suisse says surprising approval of generic Suprep Bowel Prep Kit could add 5 percent to its FY18 EPS. It could record revenue of USD 40 million for Lupin and competition will be high post exclusivity, it feels.
Lupin has received approval for Suprep Bowel Prep Kit and is eligible for six months sole exclusivity. It has lost the case at the district court and patent expiry for Suprep is later in 2023. Lupin settled on the product in Aug-2016 but the settlement terms were not known, Credit Suisse says.
Nomura also says it may see USD 40 million in revenue during the exclusivity period from this drug. Settlement allows company to launch gSuprep in FY18 with 180-day exclusivity.
With maintaining neutral rating on the stock and target price of Rs 1,626, Nomura says it projects earnings CAGR of 12 percent over FY17-19 despite a large base.
Morgan Stanley has maintained overweight rating on Lupin, with a price target of Rs 1,846.
CIMB has a reduce call on Tata Motors and lowered target price to Rs 339 from Rs 352.
After Q3 JLR EBITDA margin collapsed due to poor product mix, high ASP discounts, the brokerage house cut its FY17-19 consolidated EPS forecasts by 17-50 percent.
Profitability due to success of new Land Rover product is a key upside risk, it says.
Cement sector
CLSA says cement sector in FY17 is likely to report a YoY decline, the first in 15 years. The brokerage house turned cautious due to concerns on volumes & margins.
UltraTech Cement is its relative pick in the sector.
Goldman Sachs forecasts flat cement demand growth for FY17 and sees 8-9 percent demand decline for March quarter.
It also remained cautious on near-term cement demand. It believes demand will continue to be affected in near-term due to note ban.
Cement demand remained weak in January, registering 13 percent decline. Prices are better but sustainability of price increase remained under pressure.
DB India's top picks
Deutsche Bank says there is no visible evidence suggesting a risk of earnings downgrades.
Liquidity driven expansion in valuations may not sustain, it feels. Deutsche remained excited about the roll-out of the GST in July.
Its largecap picks are Aurobindo Pharma, BPCL, Maruti Suzuki, NTPC, SBI, Shree Cement, Tata Motors, TCS, Tech Mahindra and Vedanta India.
Midcap picks are CESC, M&M Financial, Petronet LNG, Ramco Cements, Shriram Transport and UPL, it says.
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