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The COVID-19 case graph continues to rise and so do equity markets, with the Nifty up by nearly 1 percent at 12.55pm. What is making investors take a bullish position we don’t know but over the weekend, the government’s GDP estimates for the second half of FY22 came out and we took a close look.
If we compare growth over the second half of FY20, then it works out to 6.7 percent. Even this growth has been achieved with the help of the government’s push to both consumption and investment. A sectoral break-up shows how contact-intensive sectors have fared poorly in the aftermath of the pandemic. These estimates are subject to two variables, one is a revision in estimates in end-January, and the second is the impact of the Omicron wave on growth in the fourth quarter.
This question mark presents itself even as the country’s fiscal position is not the strongest among countries it can be compared with, such as Indonesia, shows our Chart of the Day, as we kick off a series of data-backed articles in the run-up to the Budget. If India’s fiscal position is weak and the government remains the main driver of GDP growth, whether the government will continue to do so in FY23 is a question we should find answers to in the Budget.
One hurdle in the path of global economic growth shows little signs of going away. The supply chain disruption is one reason for rising input costs. While there was hope that the abating of the Delta variant could see an improvement, the new variant has dashed those hopes. This Big Read from the Financial Times ( free to read for MC Pro subscribers) takes a comprehensive look at the outlook for 2022 and it’s not looking good—show the data and views from industry people.
While markets appear to be taking the long view, looking past Omicron’s disruption, eventually investors will want to see the optimism in valuations reflect in earnings.
Investing insights from our research team
Anand Rathi Wealth posts strong Q3 earnings, but sustainability is the key
Avenue Supermarts (D-Mart): Strong results, robust long-term prospects
Equitas SFB – why look at it amid the disturbing third wave of COVID-19?
What else are we reading today?
Indian IT is gaining market share, but not at Accenture speed
Wage, work environment must for factory growth
The Eastern Window: Prospects for Chinese stocks in 2022
Is there an end in sight to supply chain disruption? (republished from the FT)
General Network Access: Right step to overhaul power transmission
Technical Picks: Tata Motors, Aarti Industries, Sun Pharma and TCS
Ravi Ananthanarayanan
Moneycontrol Pro
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