Despite US markets hitting fresh record highs, the Indian market remains slightly subdued largely on account of rise in COVID cases, leading to partial lockdown in various parts of the country.
The Nifty50, and Sensex that fell by about 1.5 percent for the week ended April 16 witnessed a knee jerk reaction on Monday, after the government on April 18 banned the supply of oxygen for industrial purposes, except in nine specified industries.
The Sensex plunged over 1000 points while Nifty50 broke below the recent swing low of 14,250 in the first 30-minutes of trade.
The decision came in view of a shortage of essential public health commodities in several states amid a spike in COVID-19 infections. It will come into effect from April 22.
Also Read: Govt bans supply of oxygen to industries to meet demand from COVID-19 patients
The Nifty50 is down by over five percent from the record high of 15,430 registered back in February 2021. Experts feel that the consolidation is likely to continue in benchmark indices while there could be stock-specific opportunities.
The Nifty50 closed below 50-DMA (displaced moving average) placed at 14,862 for the week ended April 16. It took support near 14,250 and then bounced back. On the upside, 14,800-15,000 are likely to act as stiff resistance levels for the index while 14,250 will act as crucial support.
The index is trading in a range of 14,250-15,300 since March. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) has also settled at the 20.40 level, which suggests that the index may trade in a range.
The Nifty has taken support from 61.8 percent FRL of its previous up move, which means that if it sustains above this level the index can show upside movement.
Sumeet Bagadia, Executive Director at Choice Broking told Moneycontrol: “For the week, the Nifty has strong support at 14,250 levels. While breaching below, it can fall towards 13,800-14,000 levels. Though upside resistance comes at 15,000 levels. A move above the same can show upside levels till 15,200-15,300.”
“The Bank Nifty has taken support from the previous support zone and has bounced back from there. For the upcoming week, if the Bank Nifty sustains above 31,480 levels, it can show an upside rally till 32,500-33,480 levels while a break below 30,500 levels can show a downside fall till 29,700-29,000 levels,” he said.
Here is a list of top 10 trading ideas by experts for the next 3-4 weeks:
Expert: Aditya Agarwala, Senior Technical Analyst, YES SECURITIES
Page Industries: Buy| LTP: Rs 30,230| Target: Rs 33000| Stop Loss: Rs 28,800| Upside 9 percent
The stock turned upwards from the lower-end of the Triangle support line suggesting bullishness. Further, a trade beyond 30,850 will trigger a breakout from the pattern taking the stock to recent highs. Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also in the bull territory confirming strength in the stock.
SBI Cards & Payments: Buy| LTP: Rs 973| Target: Rs 1050| Stop Loss: Rs 930| Upside 8 percent
The stock has broken out from a consolidation pattern on high volumes resuming uptrend. RSI has also turned upwards after forming a positive reversal confirming bullishness.
Alembic Pharma: Buy| LTP: Rs 1000| Target: Rs 1150| Stop Loss: Rs 920| Upside 15 percent
The stock is on the verge of a breakout from a Cup and Handle pattern neckline suggesting bullishness.
Further, 20-DMA has made a bullish crossover with 50-DMA confirming an uptrend. RSI too has entered the upper end of the bull territory.
Expert: Sumeet Bagadia, Executive Director at Choice Broking
HCL Technologies: Buy| LTP: Rs 1012| Target: Rs 1090-1110| Stop Loss: Rs 960| Upside: 9 percent
On the weekly chart, the stock has formed a bullish Hammer Candlestick Pattern, which indicates a positive sign in the counter.
Furthermore, the stock has taken a support at 960 level, which is a 61.80 percent Retracement level of its previous up move from 902 to 1,056 level that shows an upside movement in the counter.
Moreover, the stock has been trading with the strong support of 100-Days Moving Average (DMA), which is placed at 944 levels, revealing a positive trend for the time being.
Hero MotoCorp: Buy| LTP: Rs 2893| Target: Rs 3000-3200| Stop Loss: Rs 2770| Upside 4 percent
On the weekly chart, the stock has formed a ‘Long-legged Doji’ candlestick pattern at which there is 78.6 percent of Fibonacci Retracement of its previous move from 2,640 to 3,635 level.
After giving a healthy correction from an all-time high level, the stock has bounced, which suggests an upside movement in the counter.
Moreover, an Oscillator Stochastic has pulled back from an oversold zone with a positive crossover, which adds more bullishness to the prices. Glenmark: Buy| LTP: Rs 571| Target: Rs 650-720| Stop Loss: Rs 510| Upside 13 percent
On the daily chart, the stock has given a breakout of its “Consolidation Phase” as well as it is trading above its 21-Days Exponential Moving Average that is placed at 484 levels, which indicates that the stock can accelerate further.
Moreover, the stock has given a breakout of its "Upper Band of Bollinger Band" which suggests an upside movement with high volatility in the counter.
A momentum indicator RSI and MACD (moving average convergence divergence) both have shown positive crossover on the daily chart, that adds more bullishness to the price.
Expert: Mehul Kothari, AVP – Technical Research at AnandRathi
Amara Raja Batteries: Buy| LTP: Rs 808| Stop Loss: Rs 760| Target: Rs 900| Upside: 11 percent
In the month of January 2021, the stock was trading above the 1000 mark and is now hovering near 800 odd levels. The stock has now corrected by around 20 percent from the top and is still in the long-term uptrend.
At this juncture, the stock is hovering near the potential reversal zone of a Bullish Harmonic Pattern. In addition, it is at the support of a falling trend line on the daily chart.
The risk-to-reward ratio for going long is highly lucrative in this stock. Hence, traders are advised to buy the stock in the range of 810 - 800 with a stop loss of 760 for the upside potential target of 900 in the next 3-5 weeks.
Bata India: Buy| LTP: Rs 1323| Stop Loss: Rs 1200| Target: Rs 1500| Upside: 13 percent
The stock corrected from the top of over 1,600 to the recent bottom below the 1,300 mark. This has brought the stock under the oversold zone in the smaller time frame.
At this juncture, it is trading near the potential reversal zone of a couple of harmonic patterns called CYPHER and a SHARK.
For a medium-term trader, this could be a perfect price to go along with a time frame of one to three months. Thus, traders are advised to buy the stock in the range of 1,320 – 1,280 with a stop loss of 1,200 for the upside potential target of 1,500 in the next five-seven weeks.
Dr Reddy’s Laboratories: Buy| LTP: Rs 4893| Stop Loss: Rs 4675| Target: Rs 5250| Upside 7 percent
Since the past couple of weeks, the Pharma index has been doing phenomenally well. Of this, Dr Reddy’s stock has been a bit of an underperformer but is now gaining in strength due to the production of the Russian Sputnik vaccine.
The price pattern is very strong on technical parameters and the stock could outperform once there is more clarification on the developments of the vaccine.
Traders are advised to buy the stock in the range of 4,900 – 4,850 with a stop loss of 4,675 for the upside potential target of 5,250 in the next five to seven weeks.
Expert: Sameet Chavan, Chief Technical & Derivatives Analyst at Angel Broking
The pharma sector seems to have been in a different orbit for the last 12 months. Most counters from this space have completely compensated for the underperformance, as well as boredom they had provided for the previous five years.
Now the stocks are in a hurry as the recent time-wise and price-wise correction got bought into.
Strides Pharma failed to participate in the last few days’ rally, but on Friday, it finally witnessed a decisive price and volume breakout from the recent congestion zone.
We recommend going long around Rs 912–907 for the target of Rs 992 in the coming days.
Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
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