Indian stocks recorded strong losses on August 28, closing in the deep red for the second consecutive session after US increased tariffs on Indian imports to a whopping 50 percent. Analysts expect the downturn to continue, although some say that chances for a sharp rally cannot be ruled out.
Sensex dropped nearly 706 points (nearly 0.9 percent) to close at 80,080.57. Sensex has now fallen more than 1,500 points over the past two sessions on tariff jitters. Nifty 50 meanwhile fell more than 211 points (0.85 percent) to end today's session at 24,500.90.
All sectoral indices closed in the red, except consumer durables. Nifty Bank plunged more than 1 percent (over 630 points) to close at 53,820.35, with private lenders leading losses.
What lies ahead?
Today's dip in the equity markets was indeed larger that what was expected, said Osho Krishan, Senior Analyst of Technical & Derivatives at Angel One. "Although initial lows were quickly recouped, the rebound proved to be short-lived, as bearish sentiment prevailed, resulting in the Nifty index falling below the 100-day EMA," the analyst explained.
According to Krishnan, 24,350 is expected to function as a critical support level for Nifty tomorrow. If Nifty falls below this level, it can then fall to as low at 24,100. If the index shows any rebound, investors must analyse that thoroughly due to the lack of favorable macroeconomic developments, he added while painting a bleak technical outlook for the benchmark index.
"In terms of levels, 24,700-24,800 appears to be an intermediate obstacle, and it is advisable to consider reducing long positions on any bounce for the time being," he further said. For Bank Nifty, Krishnan suggested resistance at 54,250 – 54,500, and support at 53,600 – 53,400.
'Quick pullback rally cannot be ruled out'
Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities, however said that a quick pullback rally from the current levels cannot be ruled out as market is currently oversold, although the short-term market outlook is weak.
The weak market sentiment will likely continue as long as Nifty remains below 24,600 and Sensex below 80,600, he said, while adding that the benchmark indices can slip to as low as 24,300 and 79,700 respectively. "On the flip side, if the market moves above 24,600/80600, the pullback could extend up to the 20-day SMA (Simple Moving Average) or 24,725/81000. Further upside may also continue, potentially lifting the market up to 24,800/81300," he added.
'Nifty must begin forming higher high and higher low to pause the current drop'
Bajaj Broking noted that the technical charts for Nifty 50 signal continuation of the corrective decline. It said that it has formed a "second consecutive sizable bear candle with a lower high and lower low".
In order to pause the current drop, Nifty needs to start forming higher high and higher low in the daily chart, Bajaj Broking said. "Nifty has immediate support base placed at 24,400-24,350 levels being the confluence of the recent lows and the key retracement area. Index holding above the same will lead to a consolidation in the range of 24,400-24,900. While failure to do so will signal acceleration of decline towards 24,000-23,800 levels being the confluence of the 52 weeks EMA and the previous major lows and the previous major breakout area," it noted.
In its technical analysis for Bank Nifty, the domestic brokerage said that the bank index also has formed a lower high and lower low, signaling continuation of the corrective decline. "Going ahead, failure to move above 55,000 will keep the bias down and will open downside towards 53,500-53,000 levels in the coming sessions. Key support is placed at 53,500-53000 levels being the confluence of the 200 days EMA and the low of May 2025," it added.
Despite the downturn, market experts believe that an India-US trade deal may soon be reached and Indian economy remains support, which will soon lead to recovery in the market after the current dip.
Market expert Madhusudan Kela said the current downturn in the stock markets is only temporary, and investors should use this dip to buy stocks, which have undergone strong price correction. Speaking to CNBC Awaaz, he added, "Prime Minister Narendra Modi has handled several such crises in the past in a very decisive way. I don't think there is anything to worry that much about."
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