Chartist Talks: SBI Securities' Sudeep Shah bullish on these 6 stocks; says good time to accumulate, though market may consolidate

FY 2025 was nothing short of a rollercoaster ride, defined by intense market swings and shifting sentiments. The year began with heightened volatility driven by the General Election, keeping investors on edge. This turbulence was followed by a spectacular rally, propelling the index to a fresh all-time high of 26,277. However, the euphoria was short-lived as the market entered a prolonged correction phase, shedding over 4,300 points in five months. Just when pessimism loomed large, March brought a strong comeback after finding support at 21,964. The index staged an impressive 1,900-point rebound in just 15 trading sessions, reigniting hopes of stability.

Finally, the financial year ended on a positive note, with a 5% gain. In recent sessions, Nifty has consolidated within a narrow 457-point range, aligning with our expectations from previous reports. Despite this consolidation, the index continues to trade above both its short and long-term moving averages. The momentum indicators cooled off from elevated levels.

Going ahead, the current chart structure indicates that the index may continue its consolidation for the next couple of sessions before picking its next direction. On the upside, the zone of 23,720-23,750 remains a crucial hurdle. A decisive breakout above 23,750 could spark a fresh rally toward 24,100, followed by 24,400 in the short term.

On the downside, the 23,400-23,350 zone serves as immediate support, as it is the confluence of the 100-day EMA, 200-day EMA, and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the prior rally (21,964-23,869). If the index slips below 23,350, the 50-day EMA at 23,114 will act as the next crucial support.

Do you expect the market to be strong in the month of April, considering historical data?

Tracking seasonality, over the past 17 years, the April month has often exhibited a positive trend for Nifty. On 12 occasions, the index has concluded on a positive note with an average gain of 4.48%, while on 5 occasions, it has ended on a negative note with an average loss of 1.16%. The average return for Nifty in the April series has been 2.82%. Over the past 17 years, April has consistently shown an average volatility of 7 percent for the Nifty index.

Will the Bank Nifty continue to outperform the benchmark Nifty 50, considering the technical indicators?

The banking benchmark index Bank Nifty ended the March month on a strongly positive note and snapped its 3 months losing streak. Finally, it has ended the month above 51,500 level with a gain of over 6.5%. On a monthly scale, it has formed a strong base near its 20-month EMA level and thereafter witnessed a strong rebound, which is a positive sign.

During the last week, the index marked a high of 52,064 level and thereafter slid into a period of consolidation. However, it is trading above its short and long-term moving averages. These averages are in rising mode, and they are in the desired sequence, which suggests trend is strong. Further, the daily RSI is in bullish territory.

Going ahead, the zone of 52,000-52,100 will act as a crucial hurdle for the index. If the index sustains above the level of 52,100, then we may witness a sharp upside rally upto the 52,800, followed by 53,500 in the short term.

On the downside, the zone of 51,100-51,000 will act as immediate support for the index as a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement is placed in that region. If the index slips below the 51,000 level, then the next crucial support is placed in the zone of 50,500-50,400 level.

Do you see the BSE reclaiming its record high in the coming week?

After registering the low of Rs 3,682, the stock has witnessed a sharp upside rally of nearly 49 percent in just 13 trading sessions. Along with this sharp rise, the stock has also surged above its short and long-term moving averages. The momentum indicators also suggest strong bullish momentum. Hence, we believe the stock is likely to continue its northward journey and test the level of Rs 6,000 in the short term.

What are your top 2 picks for next week?

Kotak Mahindra Bank

Recently, the Kotak Mahindra Bank has witnessed a sharp upside rally and marked the high of Rs 2,202.50 level. Thereafter, it has witnessed a minor throwback. The throwback was halted near 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of its prior upward rally (Rs 1,893-2,202). Currently, the stock is trading above its short and long-term moving averages. Most noteworthy, the daily RSI (Relative Strength Index) is in a super bullish zone as per RSI range shift rules. Hence, we recommend accumulating the stock in the zone of Rs 2,180-2,160 level with a stop-loss of Rs 2,090 level. On the upside, it is likely to test the level of Rs 2,300, followed by Rs 2,350 in the short term.

Sumitomo Chemical India

The stock has given a downward sloping trendline breakout on a daily scale. This breakout is confirmed by robust volume. In addition, the stock has formed a sizeable bullish candle on a daily scale. Currently, the stock is trading above its crucial moving averages, and they are edging higher. The daily RSI is in bullish territory, and it is in rising mode. Hence, we recommend accumulating the stock in the zone of Rs 560-555 level with a stop-loss of Rs 535 level. On the upside, it is likely to test the level of Rs 590, followed by Rs 630 in the short term.

Is it the right time to bet on Poonawalla Fincorp, Britannia Industries, and Nykaa?

Yes, all three stocks—Poonawalla Fincorp, Britannia Industries, and Nykaa—are in a strong bullish trend. Momentum indicators and oscillators confirm positive strength, suggesting a favourable short-term outlook. Therefore, this appears to be a good time to accumulate these stocks for potential gains.

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