Global stocks are poised to endure another volatile session on Tuesday as concerns around President Donald Trump’s looming tariff rollout continued to whipsaw markets.
While Asian shares rose for the first time in four days, US equity-index futures declined, showing markets remain under pressure. Stocks in Japan, Australia and South Korea opened higher. Gold held near a record high on demand for haven assets. The S&P 500 staged a late rally just as Wall Street’s “fear gauge” - the VIX index - rose for four consecutive days.
Trump will announce his reciprocal tariff push on Wednesday during an event in the White House Rose Garden. Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said Monday the announcement would feature “country-based” tariffs.
The Trump administration’s mixed messaging on what new tariffs are expected to be unveiled and how they’ll be announced have traders flustered as they try to position around the biggest risk confronting the market in years. Ahead of the event, investors have refrained from taking large positions amid concerns how the levies will impact economic growth and inflation in the world’s largest economy.
“Wall Street managed to swing into positive territory overnight. However, rather than a sign of improving sentiment it is little more than an indicator of the heightened volatility driving two way price action,” wrote Kyle Rodda, a senior market analyst at Capital.com. “Attention remains fixed on the so-called ‘Liberation Day’ tariff announcement.”
The president has touted his April 2 announcement as a “Liberation Day,” heralding the start of a more protectionist policy meant as retribution against trading partners he has long accused of “ripping off” the US.
The president has preceded Wednesday’s tariff announcement with levies on Canada, Mexico and China — the US’s three largest trading partners — as well as automobiles, steel and aluminum. Import taxes on copper could come within several weeks. Trump has also threatened tariffs on pharmaceutical, semiconductor and lumber imports.
“Tariffs will likely continue to drive the market discussion,” said Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley. “Whether tariffs are more or less rigid than expected could go a long way toward shaping the market’s near-term momentum.”
Though US shares still notched their worst quarter compared to the rest of the world since 2009. As equities bounced, bonds moved away from session highs.
It was the first time since the onset of the pandemic in March 2020 that bonds rose and stocks fell in a three-month period. The dollar, long a go-to hiding place during market selloffs, suffered the worst start to a year since 2017.
A survey conducted by 22V Research showed 73% of the investors polled do not think that uncertainty will peak on Wednesday.
“Some on Wall Street are already talking about how ‘April 2’ may very well be lighter-than-feared,” said Jose Torres at Interactive Brokers. “But others worry that this economy can’t handle a stress test of this magnitude. Stock market bulls are hoping for clear skies ahead, as uncertainty itself serves as a drag on animal spirits, consumption, and capital expenditures.”
In China, there was some welcome news, as factory activity expanded at the fastest pace in a year in March. In Australia, the central bank is set to keep interest rates unchanged on Tuesday as it waits out an election campaign fought on cost-of-living issues and girds for the economic impact of a US-driven upheaval in global trade.
In commodities, oil steadied after jumping on Monday and gold held near its record high.
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