For years, the MET department, India's weatherman has been the butt of all jokes. To be fair, every country mocks its met office but they do not have the easiest of jobs.
This year, private weather forecaster Skymet is more hopeful of normal monsoon while the Indian Meteorological Department is painting a gloomy picture. Who will win this face-off?
Nayantara Rai of CNBC-TV18 reports that farmers and government have a glimmer of hope, all thanks to the MET department’s track record so far.
The Indian MET department's forecast of a deficient monsoon has sent the government, India Inc. and the market into a tizzy. But private weather forecaster Skymet maintains its outlook of a normal monsoon adding to the confusion.
An analysis of the past trends shows that IMD has a 50 percent success rate since 1982.
One of the worst calls the IMD made was in 2009 when it forecast a normal monsoon. But India saw the worst drought in 30 years. The IMD also failed to foresee droughts in 2002 and 2004.
The IMD has blamed a worsening of the El Nino conditions for its downward revision to deficient monsoon but experts say that the El Nino does not necessarily mean droughts or deficient rains.
For instance 1997 was a strong El Nino year but India had a surplus monsoon at 102 percent.
While drought years tend to be El Nino years, not all El Nino years are drought years. 2014 for instance was a drought year but not an El Nino year.
Since 1950, there have been 19 El Nino’s, and India received below normal or drought like rainfall in 11 instances, normal rainfall in 7 and excess in 1.
Private forecaster and new entrant Skymet started monsoon forecasts in 2012. While it has been a close call for both weather forecasters in 2014, Skymet's forecast in 2012 and 2013 have been more accurate.
“Based on the current forecast, agricultural output will remain weak in H1 FY16, although YoY, agricultural GDP growth may still be positive because of base effects from last year. By contrast, while lower agricultural output is a risk to food price inflation, the actual impact will depend upon the government's food management policy.” says Nomura.
Experts say that the risks are higher, though the real impact on rural demand and food price inflation will be known closer to July.
Discover the latest Business News, Sensex, and Nifty updates. Obtain Personal Finance insights, tax queries, and expert opinions on Moneycontrol or download the Moneycontrol App to stay updated!
