The government expects above normal monsoon conditions to provide a significant boost to consumption and productivity in the upcoming financial year, reinforcing confidence in India’s growth momentum, senior government sources said on May 23.
“With good or above-normal monsoon, productivity and consumption will grow. Funds in consumption-related sectors are at a high. All these add up, showing the economy is fine,” a government source said, pointing to broad-based indicators of economic resilience.
Official sources cited alignment among global institutions, including the World Bank and major rating agencies, on India’s positive growth outlook. “The rating agencies, the World Bank are all on the same page. There is no question whether India will continue to grow, the only question is just on all metrics,” the source added.
With growth supported by a good monsoon and ongoing infrastructure investment, officials said the macroeconomic environment remains conducive to sustaining momentum.
With global agencies projecting India’s GDP growth between 6.2 to 6.8 percent for FY26, the government sees domestic fundamentals—including monsoon-linked gains—as a strong pillar of support for economic expansion.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on April 15 forecast an above normal monsoon for 2025, predicting neutral El Nino conditions.
Quantitatively, the monsoon rainfall (June-September) over the country as a whole is likely to be 105% of the long period average (LPA), which is 87 cm, with a model error of +/-5%, said the weather department in its first estimate for SouthWest Monsoon.
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