Emkay Global Financial Services has come with its March 2012 quarterly earning estimates for power sector. According to the research firm EBITDA margin will decline by 145bps YoY while to improve by 484bps QoQ. Adjusted net profit will grow by ~47% QoQ and ~7% YoY.
- For 4Q12 results: We expect positive surprises from- KSK Energy (higher PLF in Wardha), PGCIL (higher capitalization), CESC (addtl revenue from 13% tariff hike) and NHPC (RoE grossing up at regular rate). Negative surprises are expected from- Adani Power (supply under PPA with GUVNL, fuel cost and depreciated rupee).
- Lots of fast paced events leading to confusion and in turn huge volatility in stock prices. But on the other side, this also is giving lots of opportunities to buy into fundamentally strong businesses/assets at cheaper values.
| Company Name | Net Sales (Rs mn) | APAT (Rs mn) | ||||
| Q4FY12 | Q3FY12 | Q4FY11 | Q4FY12 | Q3FY12 | Q4FY11 | |
| Adani Power | 15888 | 10594 | 8556 | 2720 | -634 | 1744 |
| CESC | 12754 | 10320 | 8750 | 1917 | 740 | 1120 |
| Gujarat Ind Power | 4215 | 3877 | 3117 | 431 | 168 | 719 |
| Jaiprakash Power | 3490 | 3967 | 1480 | 305 | 595 | 172 |
| JSW Energy | 19024 | 17514 | 14169 | 733 | 274 | 2048 |
| KSK Energy | 6607 | 5696 | 3490 | 951 | 755 | 377 |
| Lanco Infratech | 33172 | 30290 | 20548 | 1542 | 777 | -142 |
| Nava Bharat | 2285 | 2336 | 2681 | 582 | 378 | 651 |
| NTPC | 167110 | 153323 | 155189 | 26513 | 21630 | 29824 |
| Reliance Power | 5941 | 4573 | 4955 | 2257 | 2039 | 1866 |
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