Buy NTPC; target of Rs 439: ICICI Securities

ICICI Securities's research report on NTPC

NTPC has set ambitious expansion targets over the next decade. Earlier this year, the company raised its capacity target to 149GW by FY32 (vs. 130GW earlier). Now, it is planning to treble its existing capacity to ~244GW by FY37. The capacity addition is expected to be largely driven by renewables and thermal expansion. It is planning to achieve 60GW RE capacity by FY32 and take it further to 120–130GW by FY37. NTPC is also expanding its footprint into green hydrogen and its derivatives, energy storage and nuclear energy (targeting 30GW nuclear capacity by FY47). However, execution of planned projects shall be key for the company. The NTPC group added ~4.4GW capacity in H1FY26 across thermal, renewables and pumped hydro storage; has also reduced its FY26 target addition from 11.8GW to 9.1GW. It reported a steady Q2FY26 result – consolidated EBITDA was up 6% YoY to INR 144bn, while adjusted profit was up 3% YoY to INR 51bn. We reiterate BUY

Outlook

We reiterate BUY on the stock with a target price of INR 439 (unchanged), valuing the thermal business at 15x FY27E EPS and NGEL (RE portfolio) stake adjusted and discounted by 20%.