Assam- the most important state in BJP’s ‘Northeast Calculus’ is predicted to send around 10-13 NDA parliamentarians, whereas the INDIA bloc looks set to bag around 2-5 seats in the northeastern state, according to News18 mega exit poll.
The incumbent chief minister Himanta Biswa Sarma had led a spirited campaign in the state and the region (Northeast) trying to catapult BJP chances in the recently concluded parliamentary polls.
The ruling BJP contested on 11 parliamentary constituencies, leaving two seats for its key ally, AGP, and one seat for UPPL. In the last Lok Sabha elections in 2019, BJP had won 9 seats, INC 3, AIUDF 1, and IND 1 in the state. In 2014, BJP had won 7 seats, INC 3, AIUDF 3, and IND 1.
Assam accounts for the largest share of Lok Sabha seats—14 of 25 Lok Sabha seats—in eight northeastern states. In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP and its allies in National Democratic Alliance and the North East Democratic Alliance won 19 seats and the Congress won only four—three in Assam and one in Meghalaya.
The Badruddin Ajmal-led All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) and an independent candidate won one seat each. The BJP hopes that the exclusion of the AIUDF from the INDIA bloc will lead to a split in the votes of migrant Muslims, helping the BJP and its allies, the Asom Gana Parishad and the United People's Party Liberal.
Assam's 14 Lok Sabha constituencies are Barpeta, Dhubri, Kokrajhar, Guwahati, Darrang-Udalguri, Diphu, Karimganj, Silchar, Nagaon, Kaziranga, Sonitpur, Lakhimpur, Dibrugarh and Jorhat.
The BJP-Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) alliance is yet to taste success in the Barpeta seat. However, the party is hopeful of securing the seat for the first time due to the 'demographic change' resulting from the recent delimitation exercise.
Some of the prominent faces contesting the Lok Sabha polls from Assam include former CM of Assam and BJP candidate from Dibrugarh Sarbananda Sonowal, Congress candidate Gaurav Gogoi (son of former CM of Assam Tarun Gogoi) from Jorhat, Phani Bhushan Choudhury of AGP-BJP, Deep Bayan of Congress and Manoranjan Talukdar of CPI(M).
Here's the prediction for this important northeastern state by other pollsters:
- The ABP-CVoter exit poll survey shows the NDA's tally may down marginally from its 2019 score.
- Republic-PMARQ and Matrize Republic-Matrize's predicts NDA to get 10-12 seats, INDIA bloc to get 0-2 seats and others-0-2 seats.
- Republic-PMARQ predicts NDA to win 11 out of 14 seats INDIA bloc to win 2 seats and others- 1 seat.
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